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Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888-1905

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  • Andrew Coleman

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract

This paper examines the uncovered interest parity hypothesis using the dollar-sterling exchange rate during the gold standard era. This period is interesting because the exchange rate was seasonal, because transactions costs were high, and because occasions when uncovered interest rate speculation did not occur can be identified. The paper shows UIP speculation frequently did not occur, that speculation occurred more in response to expected exchange rate changes than interest rate differentials, and that profitability varied systematically with interest rate differentials. The estimated UIP equations are substantially improved by distinguishing occasions when sterling was borrowed not lent.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Coleman, 2010. "Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888-1905," Working Papers 10_02, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:10_02
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    File URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/10_02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    2. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
    3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    6. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "The pitfalls of estimating transactions costs from price data: evidence from trans-Atlantic gold-point arbitrage, 1886-1905," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tie‐Ying Liu & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2022. "Exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3531-3549, July.
    2. Ersin Sünbül, 2023. "Linear and Nonlinear Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate and Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Application for Countries with Different Levels of Development," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 70(1), pages 57-70, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered interest parity; gold standard;

    JEL classification:

    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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