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Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888–1905

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  • Coleman, Andrew

Abstract

This paper examines the uncovered interest parity hypothesis using the dollar-sterling exchange rate during the gold standard era. This period is interesting because the exchange rate was seasonal, because transactions costs were high, and because occasions when uncovered interest rate speculation did not occur can be identified. The paper shows UIP speculation frequently did not occur, that speculation was most active in response to expected exchange rate changes not interest differentials when it did occur, and that profitability varied systematically with interest rate differentials. The estimated UIP equations are substantially improved by distinguishing occasions when sterling was borrowed not lent.

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  • Coleman, Andrew, 2012. "Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888–1905," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 20-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:23:y:2012:i:1:p:20-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2011.10.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Hyginus Leon, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 10(3), pages 443-482, September.
    2. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
    3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    4. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    5. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    6. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    7. Coleman, Andrew, 2007. "The pitfalls of estimating transactions costs from price data: Evidence from trans-Atlantic gold-point arbitrage, 1886-1905," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 387-410, July.
    8. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "The pitfalls of estimating transactions costs from price data: evidence from trans-Atlantic gold-point arbitrage, 1886-1905," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott L. Fulford & Felipe Schwartzman, 2013. "The credibility of exchange rate pegs and bank distress in historical perspective: lessons from the national banking era," Working Paper 13-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Nils Herger, 2018. "Interest-parity conditions during the era of the classical gold standard (1880–1914)—evidence from the investment demand for bills of exchange in Europe," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Chang, Shu-Lien, 2013. "Spillovers of currency carry trade returns, market risk sentiment, and U.S. market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 197-216.
    4. Beladi, Hamid & Chakrabarti, Avik, 2012. "Stochastic processes and target zones revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 34-36.
    5. Scott L. Fulford & Felipe Schwartzman, 2020. "The Benefits of Commitment to a Currency Peg: Aggregate Lessons from the Regional Effects of the 1896 U.S. Presidential Election," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 600-616, July.
    6. Bhatti, Razzaque H., 2014. "The existence of uncovered interest parity in the CIS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 227-241.
    7. Norman C. Miller, 2014. "Exchange Rate Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14981.
    8. Nils Herger, 2017. "Testing the interest parity condition with Irving Fisher's example of Indian rupee and sterling bonds in the London financial market (1869 - 1906)," Working Papers 17.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    9. Nils Herger, 2016. "Interest parity conditions during the classical gold standard (1880 -1914) - Evidence from the investment demand for bills of exchange in Europe," Discussion Papers 1607, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncovered interest parity; Gold arbitrage;

    JEL classification:

    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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