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The impact of monetary policy signals on the intradaily Euro-dollar volatility

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    Abstract

    In this paper, we investigate the impact of monetary policy signals stemming from the ECB Council and the FOMC on the intradaily Euro-dollar volatility, using high-frequency data (five minutes frequency). For that, we estimate an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model, which integrates a polynomials structure depending on signal variables, starting from the deseasonalized exchange rate returns series. This structure allows us to test the signals persistence one hour after their occurence and to reveal a dissymmetry between the effect of the ECB and Federal Reserve signals on the exchange rate volatility.

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    File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/cahiers2006/Bla06049.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number bla06049.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Jun 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:bla06049

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    Keywords: Exchange rates; official interventions; monetary policy; GARCH models.;

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    2. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2003. "When Do Central Bank Interventions Influence Intra-Daily and Longer-Term Exchange Rate Movements?," Working Papers 506, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
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    7. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
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    17. Aurélie Boubel & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2001. "L'impact des signaux de politique monétaire sur la volatilité intrajournalière du taux de change Deutsche Mark-dollar," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 52(2), pages 353-370.
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