Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A Comparison of Seasonal Adjustment Methods When Forecasting Intraday Volatility

Contents:

Author Info

  • Martin Martens
  • Yuan-Chen Chang
  • Stephen J. Taylor
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this article we compare volatility forecasts over a thirty-minute horizon for the spot exchange rates of the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. Explicitly modeling the intraday seasonal pattern improves the out-of-sample forecasting performance. We find that a seasonal estimated from the log of squared returns improves with the use of simple squared returns, and that the flexible Fourier form (FFF) is an efficient way of determining the seasonal. The two-step approach that first estimates the seasonal using the FFF and then the parameters of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for the deseasonalized returns performs only marginally worse than the computationally expensive periodic GARCH model that includes the FFF. Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-6803.t01-1-00009
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Financial Research.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 283-299

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:2:p:283-299

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0270-2592
    More information through EDIRC

    Email:
    Web page: http://www.southwesternfinance.org/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0270-2592

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Chu, Carlin C.F. & Lam, K.P., 2011. "Modeling intraday volatility: A new consideration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 388-418, July.
    2. Rohit Deo & Clifford Hurvich & Yi Lu, 2005. "Forecasting Realized Volatility Using a Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Model: Estimation, Prediction and Seasonal Adjustment," Econometrics 0501002, EconWPA.
    3. Helinä Laakkonen, 2007. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Exchange Rate Volatility," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 23-40, Spring.
    4. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe & Laurent, S., 2011. "Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection," Open Access publications from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven urn:hdl:123456789/277137, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven.
    5. Abdelhakim Aknouche & Eid Al-Eid, 2012. "Asymptotic inference of unstable periodic ARCH processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 61-79, April.
    6. Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig, 2002. "How large is liquidity risk in an automated auction market?," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2002 2002-23, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    7. Gau, Yin-Feng, 2005. "Intraday volatility in the Taipei FX market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 471-487, September.
    8. Macaro, Christian, 2010. "Bayesian non-parametric signal extraction for Gaussian time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 381-395, August.
    9. Chortareas, Georgios & Jiang, Ying & Nankervis, John. C., 2011. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1089-1107, October.
    10. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Jér�me Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
    11. Ergün, A. Tolga & Jun, Jongbyung, 2010. "Time-varying higher-order conditional moments and forecasting intraday VaR and Expected Shortfall," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 264-272, August.
    12. Laakkonen, Helinä, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility, macro announcements and the choice of intraday seasonality filtering method," Research Discussion Papers 23/2007, Bank of Finland.
    13. Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 10914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2005. "Availability and settlement of individual stock futures and options expiration-day effects: evidence from high-frequency data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 730-747, September.
    15. Taylor, James W., 2006. "Density forecasting for the efficient balancing of the generation and consumption of electricity," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 707-724.
    16. Y. -F. Gau & M. Hau, 2004. "Public information, private information, inventory control, and volatility of intraday NTD/USD exchange rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 263-266.
    17. Darmoul Mokhtar, 2006. "The impact of monetary policy signals on the intradaily Euro-dollar volatility," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06049, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:25:y:2002:i:2:p:283-299

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.