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Expectation Formation and Social Influence

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This article investigate the role of social influence for the expectation formation of economic agents. Using self-organizing Kohonen maps the repeated cross-section data set of the University of Michigan consumer survey is transformed into a pseudo panel allowing to monitor the expectation formation of cohorts with regard to business confidence over the whole available time span (January 1978 - June 2013). Subsequently the information theoretic concept of transfer entropy is used to reveal the role of social influence on the expectation formation as well as the underlying network structure. It is shown that social influence strongly depends on socio-demographic characteristics and also coincides with a high degree of connectivity. The social network estimated in this way follows a power-law and thus exhibits similar structure as networks observed in other contexts.

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File URL: ftp://mse.univ-paris1.fr/pub/mse/CES2014/14005.pdf
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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne in its series Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne with number 14005.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:14005

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Keywords: Social networks; expectations; household survey.;

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  1. Burnkrant, Robert E & Cousineau, Alain, 1975. " Informational and Normative Social Influence in Buyer Behavior," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(3), pages 206-15, December.
  2. Charles F. Manski, 2000. "Economic Analysis of Social Interactions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 115-136, Summer.
  3. Deaton, Angus, 1985. "Panel data from time series of cross-sections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 109-126.
  4. Ron Wehrens & Lutgarde M. C. Buydens, . "Self- and Super-organizing Maps in R: The kohonen Package," Journal of Statistical Software, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(i05).
  5. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-00122817 is not listed on IDEAS
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