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Adjustment Costs, Learning-By-Doing, And Technology Adoption Under Uncertainty

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Author Info
Pavlova, Anna
Abstract

We consider a variety of vintage capital models of a firm's choice of technology under uncertainty in the presence of adjustment costs and technology-specific learning. Similar models have been studied in a deterministic setting. Part of our objective is to examine the robustness of the implications of the certainty models to uncertainty. We find that the answer crucially depends on the specification of the costs of adoption of a new vintage of technology. In particular, if the cost comes only in terms of accumulated technology-specific expertise (cf. Parente (1994)), we demonstrate that the implications are robust for a variety of specifications of the firm's production function. However, once we develop a model in which each adoption requires a capital expenditure, predictions become increasingly different as uncertainty increases. The model implies that in booms, the firm accelerates adoptions of new technologies, delaying them in recessions. Adverse effects of a recession on the investment decisions are alleviated in part by the firm's expertise (or human capital). Compared to the deterministic benchmark, the firm increases the pace of adoptions, making a smaller technological advance each time it upgrades its technology. Overall, uncertainty negatively impacts growth and the firm value

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Paper provided by Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management in its series Working papers with number 4369-01.

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Date of creation: 27 Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mit:sloanp:1807

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Postal: MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (MIT), SLOAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT, 50 MEMORIAL DRIVE CAMBRIDGE MASSACHUSETTS 02142 USA

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Related research
Keywords: Technological Change; Vintage Capital; Optimal Scrapping; Learning-by-doing;

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  2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice B. Eberly, . "The Effects of Irreversibility and Uncertainty on Capital Accumulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 21-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  3. Reinganum, Jennifer F, 1981. "On the Diffusion of New Technology: A Game Theoretic Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(3), pages 395-405, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1997. "The Mix and Scale of Factors with Irreversibility and Fixed Costs of Investment," NBER Working Papers 6148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "Consumer Durables: Evidence on the Optimality of Usually Doing Nothing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 258-72, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Parente Stephen L., 1994. "Technology Adoption, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 346-369, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
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  9. Byong-Hyong Bahk & Michael Gort, 1992. "Decomposing Learning By Doing in New Plants," Working Papers 92-16, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau. [Downloadable!]
  10. Wang, Tan, 2001. "Equilibrium with new investment opportunities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1751-1773, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Stenbacka, Rune, 2001. "Adoption of uncertain multi-stage technology projects: a real options approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 71-97, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Cooley, Thomas F. & Greenwood, Jeremy & Yorukoglu, Mehmet, 1997. "The replacement problem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 457-499, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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