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Credit and Business Cycles in Greece: Is there any relationship?

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between real credit and future movements in real output at business-cycle frequencies in Greece. Importantly, the evidence suggests that real credit is found to significantly affect real output, given the trade deficit ratio. This finding implies that the U-turn of the Greek economy requires a positive credit shock which will stimulate aggregate demand and real output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Macedonia in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2012_08.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision: Aug 2012
Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2012_08

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Web page: http://www.uom.gr/index.php?tmima=3

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Keywords: Real output; business cycles; real credit; trade deficit ratio;

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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
  3. Makram El-Shagi & Sebastian Giesen, 2010. "Testing for Structural Breaks at Unknown Time: A Steeplechase," IWH Discussion Papers, Halle Institute for Economic Research 19, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," NBER Working Papers 16429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 1998. "Credit and Business Cycles," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 18-35, 03.
  6. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
  7. Richard Werner, 2011. "Economics As If Banks Mattered: A Contribution Based On The Inductive Methodology," Manchester School, University of Manchester, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s2), pages 25-35, 09.
  8. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1990. "Money supply," Handbook of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 357-398 Elsevier.
  10. Barry Eichengreen & Kris Mitchener, 2003. "The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong," BIS Working Papers 137, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
  12. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2004. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," SIFR Research Report Series, Institute for Financial Research 27, Institute for Financial Research.
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