Bayesian Analysis of Deterministic Time Trend and Changes in Persistence Using a Generalised Stochastic Unit Root Model
AbstractThis paper makes use of the novel Generalized Stochastic Unit Root (GSTUR) model, Bayesian model estimation and model comparison techniques to investigate the presence of a deterministic time trend in economic series. The model is specified to allow for changes in persistence over time, such as shifts from stationarity I(0) to nonstationarity I(1) or vice versa. This uncertainty raises the crucial question about how sure one can be that an economic time series has a deterministic trend when there is a change in the underlying properties. Empirical analysis indicates that the GSTUR model could provide new insights on time series studies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 07/11.
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
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Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK
Phone: +44 (0)116 252 2887
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Web page: http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/economics
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-10-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-10-13 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2007-10-13 (Econometric Time Series)
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