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Are Per Capita Real GDP Series in African Countries Non-stationary or Non-linear? What does Empirical Evidence Reveal?

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Author Info

  • Vasudeva N. R. Murthy

    ()
    (College of Business Administration, Creighton University)

  • Emmanuel Anoruo

    ()
    (Coppin State University)

Abstract

This paper extends the applied time series literature in economic development, by testing whether the per capita real GDP time series in 27 African countries are non-stationary or non-linear and globally stationary over the relatively long period from 1960 to 2007. Using the non- linear unit root tests developed recently by Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (2003) the results show that in one-third of the countries, the series are stationary with non-linear mean reversion. Policy implications are indicated.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I4-P2.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 2492-2504

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00482

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Related research

Keywords: Mean reversion; non-linear unit root tests; GDP per capita;

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References

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  1. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
  2. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean-Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Working Papers 629, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  4. Josep Llu�s Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tom�s del Barrio-Castro & Enrique L�pez-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07.
  5. G. William Schwert, 1988. "Tests For Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June.
  7. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:24:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Edoardo Gaffeo & Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Requiem for the unit root in per capita real GDP? Additional evidence from historical data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 37-63, January.
  9. n/a, 2001. "Balance of payments prospects in EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 164, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  10. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 1998. "Real exchange rates under the recent float: unequivocal evidence of mean reversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 131-137, August.
  11. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  12. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2007. "Purchasing Power Parity In Central And Eastern European Countries: An Analysis Of Unit Roots And Nonlinearities," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  13. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
  14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  15. PareshKumar Narayan, 2004. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory? New Evidence From 24 Chinese Provinces," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 327-336, December.
  16. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios & Merih Uctum, 2008. "Nonlinear Alternatives to Unit Root Tests and Public Finances Sustainability: Some Evidence from Latin American and Caribbean Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 645-663, October.
  17. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S, 2001. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit-Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 482-93, August.
  18. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  19. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:31:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Multiple Breaks, Terms of Trade Shocks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1068, June.
  21. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Chi-Wei Su, 2006. "Is per capita real GDP stationary in African countries? Evidence from panel SURADF test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(15), pages 1003-1008.
  22. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kumar Tiwari, Aviral & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shahbaz Shabbir , Muhammad, 2012. "Is Per Capita GDP Non-linear Stationary in SAARC Countries?," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 1(1), pages 1-5.
  2. Chang, Tsangyao & Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Ranjbar, Omid, 2014. "Are GDP fluctuations transitory or permanent in African countries? Sequential Panel Selection Method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 380-399.
  3. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. K. Suresh & Aviral Tiwari, 2013. "Are Shocks to Real Output Permanent or Transitory? Evidence from a Panel of “Asean” Per Capita GDP Data," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 149-157, October.

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