T-DYMM : the treasury dynamic microsimulation model of the Italian pension system
AbstractThe long-term development of the social security system is a crucial policy issue in terms of both financial sustainability and adequacy, which constitute a difficult trade-off facing the policy maker. The particular complexity of this issue, also in the light of demographic dynamics and the recent economic crisis, has encouraged the development of dynamic microsimulation models as to analyse the distributive effects of pension reforms in the long run. This study presents T-DYMM, a dynamic microsimulation model developed within a European funded project runned by the Treasury Department of the Italian Ministry of the Economy and Finance in collaboration with the Fondazione G. Brodolini. The distinct character of T-DYMM compared to other models is, above all, its innovative dataset, Ad-SILC, which includes microdata needed to estimate conditional probabilities of transitions across alternative employment states and parameters of wage equations. The estimated coefficient are then used to simulate transition probabilities in T-DYMM and wage dynamics, taking into account fragile careers. A number of simulations are presented on the distributive effects related to the latest legislative changes affecting the Italian pension system. To better exploit adequacy concerns, replacement rates are shown after personal income taxation, long run poverty rates are projected as well as trends of beneficiaries of social assistance allowance and minimum pension supplement as a ratio of total pensioners.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance in its series Working Papers with number 11.
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Dynamic Microsimulation; Pensions; Job transitions; Distributive analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2013-12-06 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-12-06 (Computational Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2012.
"CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System,"
Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP)
0048, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
- Carlo Mazzaferro & Marcello Morciano, 2008. "CAPP_DYN: A Dynamic Microsimulation Model for the Italian Social Security System," Department of Economics 0595, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005.
"Long-term labour force projections for the 25 EU Member States: A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing,"
European Economy - Economic Papers
235, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Giuseppe Carone, 2005. "Long-Term Labour Force Projections for the 25 EU Member States:A set of data for assessing the economic impact of ageing," Labor and Demography 0512006, EconWPA.
- Gijs Dekkers & Richard Cumpston, 2012. "On weights in dynamic-ageing microsimulation models," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(2), pages 59-65.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marina Sabatini).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.