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Das ExpertInnen-Delphi: methodische Grundlagen und Anwendungsfeld ‘Technology Foresight‘ (The Expert Delphi: Methodology and Application in 'Technology Foresight')

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  • Georg Aichholzer
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    Abstract

    The Delphi method is basically a structured group process through which experts assess issues on which knowledge is uncertain and imperfect by nature. Delphi procedures are applied among others in the worldwide expanding field of Technology Foresight. The paper explains basic elements of the method and illustrates its use within the Austrian Technology Delphi. The innovative character of this application case is constituted by the following key features: a Foresight approach tailored to country-specific needs (selective, demand-, problem- and implementation -oriented); modification of the classical Delphi towards a ?Decision Delphi?; broader definition of relevant experts; and use of the ?Total Design Method? in the postal survey. The contribution elaborates on the translation of these design elements as well as on effects on response rates and also looks at wider impacts of the Delphi process. -- Die Delphi-Methode ist im Kern ein relativ stark strukturierter Gruppenkommunikationsprozess, in dem Fachleute Sachverhalte beurteilen, über die naturgemäß unsicheres und unvollständiges Wissen vorhanden ist. Das ExpertInnen-Delphi hat unter anderem einen festen Platz im Rahmen von weltweit an Bedeutung gewinnenden Technology Foresight Projekten. Der Beitrag legt methodische Grundlagen dar und illustriert seine Anwendung am Beispiel des österreichischen Technologie-Delphi. Zum innovativen Ansatz des Projekts und des Einsatzes der Delphi-Methode gehören folgende Hauptelemente: der auf die spezifische Situation Österreichs zugeschnittene Vorausschau-Ansatz (selektiv, nachfrage-, problem- und umsetzungsorientiert); die Modifikation des klassischen Delphi zu einem 'Entscheidungs-Delphi'; eine breitere Definition der ExpertInnenbasis; sowie die Orientierung an der 'Total Design Methode' für postalische Umfragen. Die Umsetzung dieser Designelemente und ihr Beitrag zum erzielten Response werden diskutiert, anhand einiger Gütekriterien belegt und mit einem Blick auf den Verwertungszusammenhang des Technologie-Delphi abgerundet.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Technology Assessment (ITA) in its series ITA manu:scripts with number 02_01.

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    Date of creation: 05 Feb 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:ita:itaman:02_01

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    Related research

    Keywords: Delphi-Methode; Total-Design-Methode; Technology Foresight; Technologie-vorausschau; Zukunftsforschung;

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    1. Rowe, Gene & Wright, George, 1999. "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 353-375, October.
    2. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
    3. C. West Churchman, 1963. "The X of X," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 351-357, April.
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