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Effects of demand shocks in the Brazilian economy: new production and value added multipliers

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  • Antonio Carlos Moretto
  • João Dias
  • João Carlos Lopes,
  • Rossana Lott Rodrigues

Abstract

Assuming that the traditional input-output multipliers lead to a misinterpretation of macroeconomic concepts for multisectoral analysis of a given economy, the aim of this article is to calculate the new multipliers of variation in the final demand on the production and value added by the sectors of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1995 and 2009. Using the Euclidean distance method proposed in Amaral et al (2012) and data from input-output tables, the main results showed that: a) the structural change effect was more important than the scale effect, both for the production and for the value added, although it was less important for the latter; b) Brazil is still a major exporter of unprocessed products which will generate jobs, income and taxes abroad, depriving the country of this important benefit; c) the main key sectors were Agricultural (1), Mining (2), Steel industry (4), Chemistry (11), Food industry (16) and some service sectors, such as Public Utilities (18), Trade, (20) Transportation (21), Communication (22), Public administration (24) and Other services (25), revealing the gain in importance of these activities in the national economy.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp222013.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2013/22.

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Date of creation: Dec 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp222013

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Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: input-output; Euclidean distance multipliers; structural changes; Brazil;

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  1. Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins & Sesso Filho, Umberto Antonio, 2010. "Estimação da matriz insumo-produto utilizando dados preliminares das contas nacionais: aplicação e análise de indicadores econômicos para o Brasil em 2005
    [Estimation of input-output matrix u
    ," MPRA Paper 37539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Erik Dietzenbacher, 2005. "More on multipliers," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 421-426.
  3. Guilhoto, J. J. M. & Sesso Filho, U. A., 2005. "Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto a Partir De Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais
    [Estimation of input-output matrix using preliminary data from national accounts]
    ," MPRA Paper 38212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jan Oosterhaven & Dirk Stelder, 2002. "Net Multipliers Avoid Exaggerating Impacts: With A Bi-Regional Illustration for the Dutch Transportation Sector," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 533-543.
  5. João Do Amaral & João Dias & João Lopes, 2012. "A new kind of production and value-added multiplier for assessing the scale and structure effects of demand shocks in input–output frameworks," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 103-115, August.
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