Modelling the sectoral structure of the final output
AbstractThis paper examines the modelling complications that appear when some macroeconomic behavioral relationships interact with structural variables, even under a given A matrix. The main problem is concretized for the situation when, a) the final consumption, gross fixed capital formation, inventory changes, export, import (all of them at the market prices), and gross value added (at the production prices) are estimated as macro-indicators, and b) the output (at production prices) is determined on a disaggregated level. The so-called demand-side or supply-side approaches are possible; here, the supply-side approache is especially researched. With such a goal, the regression and linear weighted average (in the Fisher version)techniques are discussed as the main tools for estimating sectoral weights of the final output. For the linear weighted average method, the paper sketches – as a discussion proposal – a methodology for the optimal selection of the length (number of terms) of the moving average. As a primary database, the Romanian input-output tables for 1989–2009, aggregated into 10 sectors were used.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48569.
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
final output; sectoral structure; regression; moving average;
Other versions of this item:
- Dobrescu, Emilian, 2013. "Modelling the Sectoral Structure of the Final Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-89, October.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-07-28 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience," MPRA Paper 35748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dobrescu, Emilian & Gaftea, Viorel & Scutaru, Cornelia, 2010. "Using the Leontief Matrix to Estimate the Impact of Investments upon the Global Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 176-187, July.
- Dobrescu, Emilian, 2009. "Measuring the Interaction of Structural Changes with Inflation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(5), pages 5-99.
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