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External dependency, value added generation and structural change: an inter-industry approach

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  • João Ferreira do Amaral

    (ISEG, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa / UECE)

  • João Carlos Lopes

    (ISEG, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa / UECE)

  • João Dias

    (ISEG, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa / UECE)

Abstract

The external dependency of many industries and the corresponding low value added generated in production, combined with a relatively weak export potential, create high external deficits and growing debt to GDP ratios in several open economies. In this paper we propose an empirical method to assess the evolution of these vulnerabilities, based on a new treatment of interindustry production multipliers. The (gross)output growth potential given by the column sums of the Leontief inverse matrix (backward linkage indicators) results from three terms: interindustry consumptions, value added and imported inputs. After a convenient arrangement of these terms, the evolution of backward linkage indicators can be used to detect structural changes, particularly quantifying a (net) growth effect (more value-added generation) and an external dependency effect (more imported inputs), and to classify the productive sectors accordingly. An application to the Portuguese Economy is made, using input-output tables for the years 1980, 1995 and 2005. This method can also be useful as a simple, but suggestive, device to compare the evolution of two or more economies, along their development processes in time.

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Article provided by Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra in its journal Notas Económicas.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 33 (June)
Pages: 06-19

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Handle: RePEc:gmf:journl:y:2011:i:33:p:06-19

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  1. Chokri Dridi & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2002. "An Investigation of Industry Associations, Association Loops, and Economic Complexity: Application to Canada and the United States," Urban/Regional, EconWPA 0210001, EconWPA, revised 23 Feb 2005.
  2. Jan Oosterhaven & Dirk Stelder, 2002. "Net Multipliers Avoid Exaggerating Impacts: With A Bi-Regional Illustration for the Dutch Transportation Sector," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 533-543.
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Cited by:
  1. Rossana Rodrigues & João Carlos Lopes & João Dias & Antonio Carlos Moretto, 2013. "Structural changes and external vulnerabilities in the Brazilian economy in the period 1995-2009," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1184, European Regional Science Association.
  2. João Carlos Lopes, 2011. "High Employment Generating Industries in Portugal. An Input-Output Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2011/24, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  3. João Carlos Lopes & João Ferreira do Amaral, 2013. "The Structure and Evolution of Production, Employment and Human Capital in Portugal: an Input-Output Approach," Notas Económicas, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra, issue 38, pages 9-28, December.
  4. Rossana Lott Rodrigues & João Carlos Lopes & João Dias & Antonio Carlos Moretto, 2013. "Structural changes and external vulnerabilities in the Brazilian economy: 1995-2009," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2013/13, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. João Carlos Lopes & Paula Cristina Albuquerque, 2012. "The characteristics and regional distribution of older workers in Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2012/22, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  6. João Carlos Lopes & João Ferreira do Amaral, 2013. "The Structure and Evolution of Production, Employment and Human Capital in Portugal: an Input-Output Approach," Working Papers Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon 2013/24, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

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