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Projekcja liczby pracuj¹cych w rolnictwie indywidulanym w Polsce w latach 2008-2035

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  • Pawe³ Strzelecki

    ()
    (Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics.)

Abstract

Celem opracowania jest opis zmian liczby i struktury wieku pracuj¹cych w rolnictwie w latach 1993-2008 oraz projekcja zmian tej populacji do roku 2035. Projekcja zosta³a przygotowana dynamiczn¹ metod¹ kohortow¹, stosowan¹ do przewidywania podaSy pracy w opracowaniach OECD oraz Komisji Europejskiej. Projekcja na lata 2009-2035 zosta³a dokonana przy za³oSeniu kontynuacji przemian generacyjnych obserwowanych w okresie 2003-2008 tzn. utrzymania siê profilu zatrudnienia w rolnictwie wed³ug wieku oraz wykorzystaniu projekcji ludnoœci Polski przygotowanej przez Eurostat (EUROPOP2008). Przewiduje ona, Se do 2035 roku liczba pracuj¹cych w rolnictwie indywidualnym zmniejszy siê do oko³o 1 mln (o 50%), co poci¹ga spadek odsetka pracuj¹cych w rolnictwie z 14% do oko³o 7% ogó³u pracuj¹cych w gospodarce. Wzrost odsetka osób m³odych uSytkuj¹cych gospodarstwa rolne, które s¹ wiêksze od przeciêtnej, przyczyni siê do zmniejszenia odsetka osób pracuj¹cych w najmniejszych gospodarstwach z 72% obecnie do oko³o 58%. Zmiany wi¹zaæ siê bêd¹ siê takSe z odp³ywami z rolnictwa na rynek pracy oko³o 20-30 tys. osób rocznie. Oko³o 2015 roku Polska powinna osi¹gn¹æ odsetek pracuj¹cych w rolnictwie zbliSony do obserwowanego w 2008 roku w Grecji i Portugalii, krajach o najwySszym udziale rolnictwa wœród pracuj¹cych w grupie krajów by³ej UE15. Summary This paper presents changes in the size of agricultural employment in Poland and its age composition – observed in the period 1993-2008 and predicted until 2035. Projections have been prepared by the dynamic cohort method, used for labour supply projections in the OECD and EC studies. Projections of agriculture employment until 2035 have been prepared under the assumption of the constant effects of cohort changes i.e. the age profile of participation rates remained unchanged. They have used Poland’s population projections prepared by Eurostat (EUROPOP2008). According to the projections employment in agriculture will decline nearly 1,000 thousands. 2035 (i.e. by 50%). It will result in the declining share of agriculture employment in the total employment from 14% in 2008 to 7% in 2035. The increasing number of younger farmers with larger bigger farms on average, will contribute to changes of the size composition of farms - the percentage of the smallest farms (below 5 ha) is predicted to drop from 72% to 58%. The changes in agriculture employment would also generate the annual outflow of about 20-30 thousands. ex-farmers to the labour market. Around 2015 the percentage of employees in agriculture will decline to 11%, the level close to observed in Greece and Portugal in 2008. These are countries with the highest share of agriculture employment among the former EU-15 countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 31.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:isd:wpaper:31

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Keywords: agriculture employment projection; labour supply projection; cohort differences; productivity in agriculture;

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  1. Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2002. "A note on the changing relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 667-682.
  2. Henriette Engelhardt & Tomas Kögel & Alexia Prskawetz, 2001. "Fertility and women´s employment reconsidered: A macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960-2000," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  3. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2002. "On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-052, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  4. Irena E. Kotowska & Janina Jóźwiak & Anna Matysiak & Anna Baranowska, 2008. "Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(22), pages 795-854, July.
  5. Anna Matysiak & Daniele Vignoli, 2006. "Fertility and women’s employment: a meta-analysis," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-048, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  6. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
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