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Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture

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Abstract

This report presents potential effects of twelve free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU FTA agenda. It sheds some light on relatively balanced cumulated impacts in terms of trade, production and price for the EU agricultural sector as a whole, while quantifying also the market development for specific agricultural sectors. Different from a forecast exercise, it compares a conservative and an ambitious FTA scenario with a business as usual (reference) scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Boulanger & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & Mihaly Himics & Robert M'barek, 2016. "Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture," JRC Research Reports JRC103602, Joint Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc103602
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    File URL: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC103602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-850, September.
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    3. Jean, Sebastien & Laborde, David & Martin, Will, 2005. "Sensitive Products: Selection and Implications for Agricultural Trade Negotiations," Conference papers 331439, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Houssein Guimbard & Sébastien Jean & Mondher Mimouni & Xavier Pichot, 2012. "MAcMap-HS6 2007, an Exhaustive and Consistent Measure of Applied Protection in 2007," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 130, pages 99-122.
    5. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q2-130-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robert M'barek & Wolfgang Britz & Alison Burrell & Jacques Delincé, 2012. "An integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) - a look back and the way forward," JRC Research Reports JRC69667, Joint Research Centre.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pelikan, Janine & Freund, Florian & Döbeling, Tatjana, 2018. "Impacts of EU - Trade Agreements: Which liberalization path is already decided and what can we expect in the future?," Conference papers 332929, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in dairy markets," Papers 2104.12707, arXiv.org.
    3. Emanuele Ferrari & Thomas Chatzopoulos & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Pierre Boulanger & Kirsten Boysen-Urban & Mihaly Himics & Robert M’barek, 2021. "Cumulative economic impact of trade agreements on EU agriculture: 2021 update," JRC Research Reports JRC123037, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Niemi, J., 2018. "European Market for Mercosur Agricultural Exports: An econometric study of commodity trade flows," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275934, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Yaghoob Jafari & Mihaly Himics & Wolfgang Britz & Jayson Beckman, 2021. "It is all in the details: A bilateral approach for modelling trade agreements at the tariff line," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(3), pages 415-442, September.
    6. Yu, Wusheng & Clora, Francesco & Costa, Louis & Baudry, Gino, 2021. "Dietary Transitions As Climate Mitigation Measures in Europe: Implications of Supply-Side Responses and Trade Policy Regimes," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315912, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Ferrari, Emanuele & Chatzopoulos, Thomas & Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez & Boulanger, Pierre & Boysen-Urban, Kirsten & Himics, Mihaly & M'barek, Robert & Redondo, Marina Pinilla, 2021. "Economic Impact of Free Trade Agreements on the EU Agri-Food Sector," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315030, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in international dairy commodity markets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 704-728, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE; modelling; trade; agriculture; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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