Impacts of EU - Trade Agreements: Which liberalization path is already decided and what can we expect in the future?

The number of trade agreements has risen strongly over the last years. Today we have nearly 300 regional trade agreements (RTAs) notified at the WTO. Additionally, there are large plurilateral agreements under negotiation. To get a deeper understanding of the impact of RTAs, it is necessary to analyse trade on a high level of detail. Liberalisation in line with RTAs covers a huge cross section of goods and is typically not realized within a single moment but is phased-in over a rather long implementation period. Countries are often engaged in a web of different trade agreements with varying and overlapping implementation periods. Additionally, in the agricultural sector Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) are part of some trade agreements. During the implementation period these quotas are expanded, thus creating another layer of complexity. With this paper we shed some light into the jungle of trade agreements and show to what extent existing trade agreements influence the outcome of new agreements. The regional focus of our analysis is on the EU. We address the question to what extent existing trade agreements influence the outcome of new agreements and examine the importance of considering existing trade agreements in baselines.