IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ipe/ipetds/0167.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Irreversible Investment with Embodied Technological Progress

Author

Listed:
  • Bruno de Oliveira Cruz
  • Aude Pommeret

Abstract

In this paper, we propose to explain capital accumulation in a stochastic framework by taking into account the two main motives for investment. Specifically, firms invest to expand capacity and to replace old machines. The model considers irreversible investment under uncertainty and embodied technological progress. It is shown to be consistent with the following empirical observations: Investment is lumpy and infrequent at the firm level; firms can invest even if they have not reached full capacity and technological progress is largely investment specific. We extend the paper of Pindyck (1988), by introducing embodied technological progress. To produce firms use irreversible capital, perfectly flexible labor, and energy whose price is stochastic. Capital and energy are complementary. We show that uncertainty makes firms to postpone investment, increasing the age of the oldest machine and reducing the proportion of new machines in the total stock of capital. We provide an exercise with tax credit to acquire new machines; it is shown that under the hypothesis of embodiment and uncertainty, the tax credit is not effective. Implicitamente, nas teorias de investimento assume-se que as firmas devam utilizar toda capacidade instalada para investir. Entretanto, tal predição é inconsistente com a observação empírica. O objetivo deste trabalho é o de estender a literatura de investimento irreversível sob incerteza, tornando-a consistente com tal fato, além de duas outras constatações empíricas: O progresso tecnológico incorporado em novas máquinas, a infrequência e a os picos de investimento em nível micro. Além de ser consistente com tais evidências empíricas, a reposição de novas máquinas é adiada pelo aumento da incerteza. Mostra-se ainda que se o progresso tecnológico incorporado e incerteza são consideradas no modelo, a concessão de créditos tributários é ineficaz para estimular o investimento.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno de Oliveira Cruz & Aude Pommeret, 2015. "Irreversible Investment with Embodied Technological Progress," Discussion Papers 0167, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0167
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/ingles/dp_167.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcomson, James M., 1975. "Replacement and the rental value of capital equipment subject to obsolescence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 24-41, February.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
    3. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    4. Boucekkine, Raouf & Germain, Marc & Licandro, Omar, 1997. "Replacement Echoes in the Vintage Capital Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 333-348, June.
    5. Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
    6. Cooley, Thomas F. & Greenwood, Jeremy & Yorukoglu, Mehmet, 1997. "The replacement problem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 457-499, December.
    7. Walsh, Michael J., 1989. "Energy tax credits and housing improvement," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 275-284, October.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 805-852.
    9. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "The Business Cycle, Financial Performance, and the Retirement of Capital Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 474-496, April.
    10. Hartman, Richard & Hendrickson, Michael, 2002. "Optimal partially reversible investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 483-508, March.
    11. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
    12. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    13. Dubin, Jeffrey A. & Henson, Steven E., 1988. "The distributional effects of the Federal Energy Tax Act," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 191-212, September.
    14. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    15. Boucekkine, Raouf & Pommeret, Aude, 2004. "Energy saving technical progress and optimal capital stock: the role of embodiment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 429-444, May.
    16. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-362, June.
    17. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Raff, Daniel M. G., 1991. "Intra-Industry Heterogeneity and the Great Depression: The American Motor Vehicles Industry, 1929–1935," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 317-331, June.
    18. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
    19. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
    20. Epaulard, Anne & Pommeret, Aude, 2003. "Optimally eating a stochastic cake: a recursive utility approach," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 129-139, May.
    21. Richard Hartman & Michael Hendrickson, "undated". "Optimal Partially Reversible Investment," Working Papers UWEC-2002-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pereira, Rodrigo Mendes, 2008. "Investment and Uncertainty in Machinery and Real Estate," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 62(3), November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862, Elsevier.
    2. George Bitros, 2010. "The theorem of proportionality in contemporary capital theory: An assessment of its conceptual foundations," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 367-401, December.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine & Bruno de Oliveira Cruz, 2015. "Technological Progress and Investment: A Non-Technical Survey," AMSE Working Papers 1519, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    4. Bruno de Oliveira Cruz & Raouf Boucekkine, 2006. "Technological Progress and Investment Microeconomic Foundations and Macroeconomic Implications," Discussion Papers 1170, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    5. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Aude POMMERET, 2000. "Optimal Capital Accumulation, Energy Cost and the Nature of Technological Progress," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2001023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2000. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 928-960, October.
    7. Marcela Eslava & John Haltiwanger & Adriana Kugler & Maurice Kugler, 2010. "Factor Adjustments after Deregulation: Panel Evidence from Colombian Plants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 378-391, May.
    8. Jeffrey Campbell, 1998. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 371-408, April.
    9. Raouf Boucekkine & David De la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2011. "Vintage Capital Growth Theory: Three Breakthroughs," Working Papers 565, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Nicholas Bloom, 2000. "A Generalised Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Aggregation and Estimation," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1505, Econometric Society.
    11. Hiroyuki Kasahara, 2003. "Technology Adoption Under Relative Factor Price Uncertainty: The Putty-clay Investment Model," Working Paper 1014, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Gourio, Francois & Kashyap, Anil K, 2007. "Investment spikes: New facts and a general equilibrium exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 1-22, September.
    13. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    14. Christian Bayer, 2001. "Aggregate investment dynamics when firms face fixed investment cost and capital market imperfections," Discussion Papers in Economics 01_13, University of Dortmund, Department of Economics.
    15. John Haltiwanger & Russell Cooper & Laura Power, 1999. "Machine Replacement and the Business Cycle: Lumps and Bumps," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 921-946, September.
    16. Khan, Aubhik & Thomas, Julia K., 2003. "Nonconvex factor adjustments in equilibrium business cycle models: do nonlinearities matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 331-360, March.
    17. Tomat, Gian Maria, 2008. "Modeling the Effects of Financial Constraints on Firm's Investment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-26.
    18. Pinar Geylani, 2015. "Lumpy investments and capital adjustment patterns in the food manufacturing industry," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(3), pages 501-517, July.
    19. Yatsenko, Yuri & Hritonenko, Natali, 2020. "Optimal asset replacement: Profit maximization under varying technology," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    20. Douglas W Dwyer, 1995. "Technology Locks, Creative Destruction And Non-Convergence In Productivity Levels," Working Papers 95-6, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0167. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fabio Schiavinatto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipeaabr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.