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The Business Cycle, Financial Performance, and the Retirement of Capital Goods

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Author Info
Austan Goolsbee

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Abstract

The neoclassical investment literature assumes that capital is homogenous, lives forever and has a constant depreciation rate. More recent theories of investment have shown that when there are distinct capital vintages with embodied technologies, depreciation and capital retirement become economic decisions and this raises important problems with existing empirical work. Direct testing of these issues, however, has been rare because of the lack of micro data. This paper uses new data on the service lives of individual capital goods in the airline industry to empirically examine the impact that economic factors have on capital retirement. The results strongly support the view that retirement is fundamentally an economic decision. Retirement is much more likely in recessions, when the cost of capital is low, or when a firm has good financial performance. Factor prices and industry regulation are also important. Since many of these factors also influence capital expenditures, the results imply that estimates from the conventional investment literature such as the effect of the cost of capital or financial performance may substantially overstate the case since their impact on net investment may be much more modest than their impact on gross investment. The results also have implications for the measurement of productivity.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 6392.

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Date of creation: Feb 1998
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6392

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  1. Russell Cooper & John Haltiwanger, 1993. "The Aggregate Implications of Machine Replacement: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Feldstein, Martin S & Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "Towards an Economic Theory of Replacement Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(3), pages 393-423, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cooley, T.F. & Greenwood, J. & Yorukoglu, M., 1997. "The Replacement Problem," RCER Working Papers 444, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  4. Boddy, Raford & Gort, Michael, 1971. "The Substitution of Capital for Capital," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(2), pages 179-88, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Basu, Susanto, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "Investment Tax Incentives, Prices, And The Supply Of Capital Goods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 121-148, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Feldstein, Martin S & Foot, David K, 1971. "The Other Half of Gross Investment: Replacement and Modernization Expenditures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 49-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Peter Klenow, 1998. "Learning Curves and the Cyclical Behavior of Manufacturing Industries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 531-550, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1986. "Econometric analysis of longitudinal data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 29, pages 1689-1763 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-68, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2000. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," NBER Working Papers 7925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stephen L. Parente, 2000. "Learning-by-Using and the Switch to Better Machines," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 675-703, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fagiolo G. & Roventini A., 2004. "Animal Spirits, Lumpy Investment, and the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 109, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2005. "Animal Spirits, Lumpy Investment, and Endogenous Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2005/04, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Antonio R. Sampayo & Luis A. Puch & Omar Licandro, 2006. "Secondhand market and the lifetime of durable goods," Working Papers 2006-10, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bitros, George, 2008. "The Proportionality Hypothesis in Capital Theory: An Assessment of the Literature," MPRA Paper 8752, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Karl Whelan, 2000. "Computers, obsolescence, and productivity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Schumpeter Meeting Keynes: A Policy-Friendly Model of Endogenous Growth and Business Cycles," LEM Papers Series 2008/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "An Evolutionary Model of Endogenous Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 3-34, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Austan Goolsbee, 1998. "Taxes and the Quality of Capital," NBER Working Papers 6731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Ian Sue Wing, 2005. "The Synthesis of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Approaches to Climate Policy Modeling: Electric Power Technologies and the Cost of Limiting U.S. CO2 Emissions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 21, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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