Chinese Poverty: Assessing the Impact of Alternative Assumptions
AbstractThis Working Paper investigates how estimates of the extent and trend of consumption poverty in China between 1990 and 2001 vary as a result of alternative plausible assumptions concerning the poverty line and estimated levels of consumption. The exercise is motivated by the existence of considerable uncertainty about the appropriate poverty lines to apply and the level and distribution of resources in China. Our methodology focuses on the following sources of variation: alternative purchasing power parity conversion factors (used to convert an international poverty line), alternative estimates of the level and distribution of private incomes, alternative estimates of the propensity to consume of lower income groups, and alternative consumer price indices. It is widely believed that substantial poverty reduction took place in China in the 1990s, and we find this conclusion to be robust to the choice of assumptions. Moreover, there is no evidence that the rate of poverty reduction declined over time. China?s record of reducing consumption poverty has been dramatic. However, estimates of the extent of Chinese poverty in any year are greatly influenced by the assumptions made. The choice among these estimates is likely to have large implications for the perceived extent and trend of world poverty.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth in its series Working Papers with number 25.
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by UNDP - International Poverty Centre, July 2006, pages 1-35
Consumption poverty; China; Sensitivity analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Camelia Minoiu & Sanjay G. Reddy, 2008. "Chinese Poverty: Assessing The Impact Of Alternative Assumptions," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(4), pages 572-596, December.
- Sanjay G. Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2005. "Chinese Poverty: Assessing the Impact of Alternative Assumptions," Microeconomics 0509002, EconWPA.
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
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