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Has World Poverty Really Fallen?

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  • Sanjay G. Reddy
  • Camelia Minoiu

Abstract

We evaluate the claim that world consumption poverty has fallen since 1990 in light of alternative assumptions about the extent of initial poverty and the rate of subsequent poverty reduction in China, India, and the rest of the developing world. We use two poverty indicators: the aggregate headcount and the headcount ratio, and consider two widely-used international poverty lines ($1/day and $2/day). We conclude that, because of uncertainties in relation to the extent and trend of poverty in China, India, and the rest of the developing world, global poverty may or may not have increased. The extent of the estimated increase or decrease in world poverty is critically dependent on the assumptions made. Our conclusions highlight the importance of improving the quality of global poverty statistics. Copyright � 2007 The Authors; Journal compilation � International Association for Research in Income and Wealth 2007.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Research in Income and Wealth in its journal Review of Income and Wealth.

Volume (Year): 53 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 484-502

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Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:53:y:2007:i:3:p:484-502

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Cited by:
  1. Edward, Peter & Sumner, Andy, 2014. "Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 67-82.
  2. Camelia Minoiu & Sanjay G. Reddy, 2008. "Chinese Poverty: Assessing The Impact Of Alternative Assumptions," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(4), pages 572-596, December.
  3. Subramanian, S., 2012. "Variable Populations and the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality: A Selective Overview," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Pinkovskiy, Maxim L., 2014. "World welfare is rising: estimation using nonparametric bounds on welfare measures," Staff Reports, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 662, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Facundo Alvaredo & Leonardo Gasparini, 2013. "Recent Trends in Inequality and Poverty in Developing Countries," CEDLAS, Working Papers, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata 0151, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  6. Camelia Minoiu & Sanjay Reddy, 2008. "Kernel Density Estimation Basedon Grouped Data," IMF Working Papers 08/183, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kohei Kawamura, 2008. "Inequality, Happiness and Relative Concerns: What Actually is their Relationship?," ESE Discussion Papers, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh 182, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.

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