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Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?

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  • Mr. Joong S Kang
  • Wei Liao

Abstract

Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Joong S Kang & Wei Liao, 2016. "Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?," IMF Working Papers 2016/106, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2016 - Weltkonjunktur gewinnt vorerst nur wenig Schwung [World Economy Autumn 2016 - World economic growth to pick up only gradually]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    4. Alice Schwenninger, 2018. "La Chine à travers le spectre de la balance des paiements," Sciences Po publications 22, Sciences Po.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/q2oq3eedv82ephg1u2r8ae2cs is not listed on IDEAS
    6. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25823, December.

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