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Are Chinese Imports Sensitive To Exchange Rate Changes?

Author

Listed:
  • WILLEM THORBECKE

    (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, 1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8901, Japan)

  • GORDON SMITH

    (Anderson College, 316 Boulevard, Anderson, SC 29621, USA)

Abstract

Estimating the price elasticity of China's imports is difficult because many imports are used to produce exports and because the real effective exchange rate has remained fairly stable. To circumvent the first problem, we control for re-exports, and to increase the discriminatory power of the tests, we employ a panel data set including imports from 25 countries. The results indicate that a 10% RMB appreciation would increase imports for processing and ordinary imports by 3%–4%. As China climbs the value chain, the potential for import substitution and hence the import price elasticity should increase. Thus a renminbi appreciation should help to raise China's imports and rebalance its economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2012. "Are Chinese Imports Sensitive To Exchange Rate Changes?," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ceprxx:v:01:y:2012:i:02:n:s1793969012500124
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793969012500124
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    2. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
    3. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2008. "China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 53-92.
    4. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2010. "The Performance of Panel Cointegration Methods: Results from a Large Scale Simulation Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 182-223, April.
    5. Thorbecke, Willem & Kato, Atsuyuki, 2011. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Japanese Consumption Exports," ADBI Working Papers 298, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal, 2011. "China's Foreign Trade in the Perspective of a More Balanced Economic Growth," Working Papers 2011-03, CEPII research center.
    7. Thorbecke, Willem, 2011. "Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on china's processed exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 33-46, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary W. Williams & Ji Luo, 2017. "Exchange Rate Policy and Global Supply Chains: The Case of the Chinese Renminbi and Global Soybean and Soybean Product Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 177-198.
    2. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    3. Andoni Maiza & Ricardo Bustillo, 2018. "Analysis of the relevance of China’s development for main European automotive manufacturing countries," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 45(3), pages 403-424, September.
    4. Jihyun Eum, 2019. "Impact of Chinese Renminbi on Korean Exports: Does Quality Matter?," Working Papers 2019-24, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    5. Mr. Joong S Kang & Wei Liao, 2016. "Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?," IMF Working Papers 2016/106, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate elasticities; China; F32; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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