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Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on china's processed exports

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  • Thorbecke, Willem

Abstract

Many argue that the renminbi needs to appreciate to rebalance China's trade. However, empirical evidence on the effects of an RMB appreciation on China's exports has been mixed for the largest category of exports, processed exports. Since much of the value-added of these goods comes from parts and components produced in Japan, South Korea, and other East Asian supply chain countries, it is important to control for exchange rate changes in these countries. Employing DOLS techniques and quarterly data, this paper finds that exchange rate appreciations across supply chain countries would cause a much larger drop in processed exports than a unilateral appreciation of the RMB.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorbecke, Willem, 2011. "Investigating the effect of exchange rate changes on china's processed exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 33-46, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:25:y:2011:i:2:p:33-46
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    1. Willem Thorbecke, 2015. "Measuring the Competitiveness of China's Processed Exports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 78-100, January.
    2. Benkovskis Konstantins & Wörz Julia, 2018. "“Made in China”: how does it affect our understanding of global market shares?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-26, June.
    3. Ercan Yasar & Güray Akalin & Sinan Erdogan & Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie, 2022. "Trading Kuznets curve: empirical analysis for China," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 741-768, August.
    4. repec:ilo:ilowps:486999 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "Again on trade elasticities: evidence from a selected sample of countries," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 259-287, December.
    6. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang‐Jin Wei, 2019. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country‐Sector Level," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 7-42, December.
    7. Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2011. "The People’s Republic of China’s Currency and Product Fragmentation," ADBI Working Papers 327, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "East Asian value chains, exchange rates, and regional exchange rate arrangements," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov, 2012. "Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 3, pages 34-54.
    10. Willem Thorbecke, 2013. "Investigating China's Disaggregated Processed Exports: Evidence that Both the RMB and Exchange Rates in Supply Chain Countries Matter," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1245-1260, October.
    11. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "East Asian Supply Chains and Relative Prices: A survey of the evidence," Policy Discussion Papers 12006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2015. "New Evidence on Export Price Elasticity from China and Six OECD Countries," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(6), pages 56-78, November.
    13. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    14. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2012. "Are Chinese Imports Sensitive To Exchange Rate Changes?," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-15.
    15. Dong Phong Nguyen & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2017. "Determinants of bilateral trade: evidence from ASEAN+3," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(2), pages 115-122, November.
    16. Konstantins Benkovskis & Julia Woerz, 2014. ""Made in China" - How Does it Affect Measures of Competitiveness?," Working Papers 2014/04, Latvijas Banka.
    17. Bruno Jetin & Ozan Ekin-Kurt & Anna Su, 2012. "Unbalanced distribution of income and Unbalanced Chinese Growth: Single Equation Estimations Based on Bhaduri/Marglin Model," Post-Print halshs-03244032, HAL.
    18. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mika Saito & Mr. Jarkko Turunen, 2013. "Measuring Competitiveness: Trade in Goods or Tasks?," IMF Working Papers 2013/100, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Yap, Josef T., 2014. "ASEAN Community 2015 : managing integration for better jobs and shared prosperity in the Philippines," ILO Working Papers 994869993402676, International Labour Organization.
    20. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    21. Ho, Lok Sang, 2012. "Globalization, exports, and effective exchange rate indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 996-1007.
    22. Konstantīns Beņkovskis & Julia Wörz, 2015. "Summary Measure for Price and Non-price Competitiveness for ASEAN+3," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 165-180, June.
    23. Megdam Khalil Ibrahim Khalil & Li Xiumin, 2014. "Identifying the Impact of RMB and SDG Exchange Rate Variability on the Trade Value between China and Sudan (1986-2012)," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 141-158.
    24. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Alessia Via, 2014. "Do Export Price Elasticities Support Tensions In Currency Markets? Evidence From China And Six Oecd Countries," Working Papers 201405, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    25. Willem THORBECKE, 2012. "Investigating China's Disaggregated Processed Exports: Evidence that the RMB matters," Discussion papers 12003, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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