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The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Herman
  • Ms. Deniz O Igan
  • Mr. Juan Sole

Abstract

This paper exploits the Financial Accounts of the United States to derive long time series of bank and nonbank credit to different sectors, and to examine the cyclical behavior of these series in relation to (i) the long-term business cycle, (ii) recessions and recoveries, and (iii) systemic financial crises. We find that bank and nonbank credit exhibit different dynamics throughout the business cycle. This diverging cyclical behavior of output and bank and nonbank credit argues for placing greater emphasis on sector-specific macroprudential measures to contain risks to the financial system, rather than using interest rates to address any vulnerabilities. Finally, we examine the role of bank and nonbank credit in the creation of financial interconnections and illustrate a method to conduct macro-financial stability assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Herman & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Juan Sole, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Relevance of Credit Flows: An Exploration of U.S. Data," IMF Working Papers 2015/143, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/143
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hyun, Junghwan, 2016. "Financial crises and the evolution of credit reallocation: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 25-34.
    3. P. Lakshmi & M. Thenmozhi & Nikhil Varaiya, 2019. "Determinants of Aggregate Credit Flows to U.S. Corporate and Noncorporate Sector," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(1), pages 21582440188, January.
    4. Martin Hodula & Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký, 2020. "Placing the Czech Shadow Banking Sector under the Light," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(1), pages 3-28.
    5. Martin Hodula & Martin Macháček & Aleš Melecký, . "Placing the Czech Shadow Banking Sector under the Light," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-25.

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