IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-278.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Growth and Bank Soundness: Fast and Furious?

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Deniz O Igan
  • Marcelo Pinheiro

Abstract

We examine the risks to bank soundness associated with credit booms in a large set of countries. Using bank-level data in 90 countries between 1995 and 2005, we analyze the relationship between credit growth and bank soundness taking into account the potential two-way causality. We find that, while sounder banks tend to grow faster at moderate-growth periods, credit growth becomes less dependent on soundness during booms. These findings shed some light on why credit booms are often associated with financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Deniz O Igan & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2011. "Credit Growth and Bank Soundness: Fast and Furious?," IMF Working Papers 2011/278, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/278
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25390
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    2. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    4. Manuel Arellano, 1990. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Random Effects Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 127-134.
    5. Burcu Aydin, 2008. "Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/215, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    8. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    10. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October.
    11. István Kónya & Hiroshi Ohashi, 2007. "International Consumption Patterns among High‐income Countries: Evidence from the OECD Data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 744-757, September.
    12. Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo & Yañez, Mónica, 2004. "Bank Ownership and Performance," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1544, Inter-American Development Bank.
    13. Stijn Claessens, 2010. "The Financial Crisis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 177-196, May.
    14. Mr. Stijn Claessens & Mr. Luc Laeven & Ms. Deniz O Igan & Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 2010. "Lessons and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2010/044, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Hall, S G, 1987. "A Forward Looking Model of the Exchange Rate," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 47-60, January.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Euro Area Policies: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/266, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2008. "Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe," IMF Working Papers 2008/219, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    19. Andrea M Maechler & Srobona Mitra & Delisle Worrell, 2010. "Decomposing Financial Risks and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 25-60, April.
    20. Randa Sab & Stephen C. Smith, 2002. "Human Capital Convergence: A Joint Estimation Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-3.
    21. Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis [From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, differences and lessons]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 267-293.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burcu Aydin, 2008. "Banking Structure and Credit Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2008/215, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Neelam Timsina, 2016. "Determinants of Bank Lending in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 28(2), pages 19-42, October.
    3. Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Yap, Ying Kai & Shafik, Salwa, 2014. "Can the Chinese banking system continue to grow without sacrificing loan quality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 315-330.
    4. Natalie Tiernan & Pedro Gete, 2014. "Overlending and Macroprudential Tools," 2014 Meeting Papers 379, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Aparicio, Juan & Duran, Miguel A. & Lozano-Vivas, Ana & Pastor, Jesus T., 2018. "Are charter value and supervision aligned? A segmentation analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-73.
    6. Ali Awdeh, 2017. "The Determinants of Credit Growth in Lebanon," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 9-19, February.
    7. Wagner, Charlotte & Winkler, Adalbert, 2013. "The Vulnerability of Microfinance to Financial Turmoil – Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 71-90.
    8. Fernandes, Marcelo & Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo, 2020. "March madness in Wall Street: (What) does the market learn from stress tests?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Bas B. Bakker & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Deniz O Igan & Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/06, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Damane, Moeti & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2024. "The impact of financial inclusion on financial stability: review of theories and international evidence," MPRA Paper 120369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Al-Khouri, Ritab & Arouri, Houda, 2016. "The simultaneous estimation of credit growth, valuation, and stability of the Gulf Cooperation Council banking industry," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 499-518.
    12. Tanja Markovic-Hribernik & Matej Tomec, 2015. "Bad Bank And Other Possible Banks’ Rescuing Models – The Case Of Slovenia," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 128-141, January.
    13. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven & Hui Tong, 2016. "Credit booms and macrofinancial stability," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(86), pages 299-355.
    14. Thaer Alhalabi & Vitor Castro & Justine Wood, 2023. "The relationship between excessive lending, risk premium and risk‐taking: Evidence from European banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 448-471, January.
    15. Hao Thi Kim Do & Nguyet Thi Minh Nguyen & Trung Hai Le, 2017. "Effects of the Credit Boom on the Soundness of Vietnamese Commercial Banks," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 57-73, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hao Thi Kim Do & Nguyet Thi Minh Nguyen & Trung Hai Le, 2017. "Effects of the Credit Boom on the Soundness of Vietnamese Commercial Banks," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(3), pages 57-73, July.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Czech Republic, Republic of Estonia, Hungary, Republic of Latvia, Republic of Lithuania, Republic of Poland, Slovak Republic, and Republic of Slovenia; Export Structure and Credit Growth," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/414, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Yap, Ying Kai & Shafik, Salwa, 2014. "Can the Chinese banking system continue to grow without sacrificing loan quality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 315-330.
    4. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2008. "Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe," IMF Working Papers 2008/219, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    7. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2015. "Determinants of Bank Lending," Working Papers hal-01158241, HAL.
    8. Muhammad Kashif & Syed Faizan Iftikhar & Khurram Iftikhar, 2016. "Loan growth and bank solvency: evidence from the Pakistani banking sector," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Bas B. Bakker & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Jérôme Vandenbussche & Deniz O Igan & Hui Tong, 2012. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; How to Deal with Credit Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/06, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Turrini & Stefan Zeugner, 2020. "Is Private Debt Excessive?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 471-512, April.
    11. Shawn Cole & Martin Kanz & Leora Klapper, 2015. "Incentivizing Calculated Risk-Taking: Evidence from an Experiment with Commercial Bank Loan Officers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 537-575, April.
    12. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
    13. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    14. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2014. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 6, pages 165-204, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Atahau, Apriani Dorkas Rambu & Cronje, Tom, 2020. "Bank lending: The bank ownership focus in the pre- and post-global financial crisis periods," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    16. Ivan Diaz-Rainey & John Ashton & Maz Yap & Murat Genc & Rosalind Whiting, 2015. "The determinants of regulatory responses to risks from financial innovation: Survey evidence from G20," Working Papers 15001, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    17. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven, 2012. "Credit information sharing and banking crises: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 788-800.
    18. Olszak, Małgorzata & Pipień, Mateusz & Kowalska, Iwona & Roszkowska, Sylwia, 2014. "What drives heterogeneity of loan loss provisions’ procyclicality in the EU?," MPRA Paper 56834, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    20. Martynova, Natalya & Ratnovski, Lev & Vlahu, Razvan, 2020. "Bank profitability, leverage constraints, and risk-taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/278. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.