IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2011-249.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Mr. Jun I Kim
  • Ms. Kazuko Shirono

Abstract

This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Mr. Jun I Kim & Ms. Kazuko Shirono, 2011. "Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2011/249, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/249
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=25316
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in Sudden Stop economies: An assessment of the New Mercantilism," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 194-209, July.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    3. Dreher, Axel, 2006. "IMF and economic growth: The effects of programs, loans, and compliance with conditionality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 769-788, May.
    4. Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia," IMF Working Papers 2010/054, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Francesco Caselli & James Feyrer, 2007. "The Marginal Product of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 535-568.
    6. Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications," IMF Working Papers 2006/229, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    8. Norman V. Loayza & Romain Rancière & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 343-357, October.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September.
    10. Drummond, Paulo & Dhasmana, Anubha, 2008. "Foreign Reserve Adequacy in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 9729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
    12. David Hauner, 2006. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 169-195, August.
    13. Regis Barnichon, 2009. "The Optimal Level of Reserves for Low-Income Countries: Self-Insurance against External Shocks," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 852-875, November.
    14. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Torbjorn I. Becker & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Romain Ranciere & Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2007. "Country Insurance: The Role of Domestic Policies," IMF Occasional Papers 2007/004, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neda Popovska-Kamnar & Miso Nikolov & Artan Sulejmani, 2016. "Determinants Of The International Reserves In The Republic Of Macedonia," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 51-61, December.
    2. GBANDI, Tchapo, 2016. "Ratios d’adéquation et fonction de demande des réserves de change dans les pays de l’UEMOA [Title: Foreign reserve adequacy ratios and reserve demand function in WAEMU countries]," MPRA Paper 82145, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Jun 2016.
    3. Winston Moore & Adrian Glean, 2016. "Foreign exchange reserve adequacy and exogenous shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 490-501, February.
    4. Dabla-Norris, Era & Bal Gündüz, Yasemin, 2014. "Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 360-378.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Kingdom of Swaziland: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Kingdom of Swaziland," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/353, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Quy Ta & Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy, 2022. "“How Do Shocks Affect International Reserves? A Quasi-Experiment of Earthquakes”," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 945-971, November.
    7. Zhichao Zhang & Frankie Chau & Li Xie, 2013. "Accumulation of large foreign reserves in China: a behavioural perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 85-108, March.
    8. Mile Bošnjak & Vlatka Bilas & Gordana Kordić, 2020. "Determinants Of Foreign Exchange Reserves In Serbia And North Macedonia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(226), pages 103-120, July – Se.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "International Reserves in Low Income Countries: Have they Served As Buffers?," IMF Working Papers 2012/007, International Monetary Fund.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    2. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2010. "Was the Asian crisis a wake-up call?: Foreign reserves as self-protection," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Zhichao Zhang & Frankie Chau & Li Xie, 2013. "Accumulation of large foreign reserves in China: a behavioural perspective," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 85-108, March.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    6. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    7. Andrew J. Filardo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Prolonged Reserves Accumulation, Credit Booms, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy in Asia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 364-381, February.
    8. Biljana Jovanovikj & Danica Unevska Andonova, 2017. "The Optimal Level of Foreign Reserves in Macedonia," Working Papers 2017-05, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    9. Alexander Mihailov & Harun Nasir, 2022. "Sudden Stops, Productivity and the Optimal Level of International Reserves for Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 825-851, November.
    10. Pina, Gonçalo, 2017. "International reserves and global interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 371-385.
    11. Yeonjeong Lee & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Relationship between International Reserves and FX Rate Movements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.
    12. Dongwon Lee & Yu-chin Chen, 2014. "What Makes a Commodity Currency?," Working Papers 201420, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
    13. M, Ramachandran & Maheswari, D., 2022. "Asymmetry in forex market intervention: Does it reflect fear of reserve inadequacy?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    14. Seghezza, Elena & Morelli, Pierluigi & Pittaluga, Giovanni B., 2017. "Reserve accumulation and exchange rate policy in China: The authoritarian elite's aim of political survival," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-51.
    15. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    16. Zineddine Alla, 2017. "Optimal policies in International Macroeconomics," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6kvjk9o32n8, Sciences Po.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    18. Philippe Bacchetta & Kenza Benhima & Yannick Kalantzis, 2013. "Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can This Be Optimal?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 229-262, July.
    19. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Milan Zavadjil, 2008. "Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?," IMF Working Papers 2008/192, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2014. "Accounting for emerging market countries' international reserves: Are Pacific Rim countries different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 52-82.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.