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The Long-Run Effects of Tradeon Income and Income Growth

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  • Mr. Allan D. Brunner

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic theory is ambiguous about the possible effects on the long-run growth rate of the economy. Using a dynamic panel data model, the hypotheses of no long-run effects of trade on income and on income growth are tested explicitly. The possibility of endogeneity is addressed by constructing an instrument for trade by extending Frankel and Romer's (1999) cross-sectional approach to the case of a panel data model. The empirical results indicate that trade has a large and significant effect on the level of income, but the effect on income growth is small and non-robust to model specification.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Allan D. Brunner, 2003. "The Long-Run Effects of Tradeon Income and Income Growth," IMF Working Papers 2003/037, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2003/037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mr. Vivek B. Arora & Mr. Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2004. "How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/026, International Monetary Fund.
    3. B. Bhaskara Rao & Artur Tamazian & Krishna Chaitanya Vadlamannati, 2011. "Growth effects of a comprehensive measure of globalization with country-specific time series data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 551-568.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    5. Wu, Tommy T., 2015. "Firm heterogeneity, trade, multinationals, and growth: A quantitative evaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 359-375.
    6. Bruno S. Frey & Lasse Steiner, 2012. "Political Economy: Success or Failure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(3), September.
    7. Jose Romero, 2012. "Inversión extranjera directa y crecimiento económico en México: 1940-2010," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2012-12, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    8. José Romero, 2015. "Exports, imports, FDI and GDP in Mexico," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2015-01, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    9. Qingjie Liu & Biliang Hu, 2019. "A Study on the Two-way Causal Relationship Between Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth: Empirical Test Based on 40 Years of Reform and Opening-up in China," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 11(1-2), pages 98-118, January.
    10. Bergheim, Stefan, 2007. "Pair-wise cointegration in long-run growth models," Research Notes 24, Deutsche Bank Research.
    11. Konstantaras, Konstantinos & Philippas, Dionisis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2018. "Trade asymmetries in the Mediterranean basin," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 13-20.
    12. Kalkschmied, Katja, 2023. "Rebundling Institutions: How property rights and contracting institutions combine for growth," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 477-500.

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