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Inversión extranjera directa y crecimiento económico en México: 1940-2010

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  • Jose Romero

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    (El Colegio de México)

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    Abstract

    En este trabajo se analiza el impacto de la inversión extranjera directa sobre la productividad del trabajo para el período 1940-2010. Se plantea una función producción que relaciona el producto agregado con el trabajo, y capital de tres tipos: privado nacional, extranjero y público. De la función de producción en niveles se obtuvo una relación en términos de tasas de crecimiento y dado que las variables en niveles están cointegradas se agregó un término de corrección de errores. Se realizó una prueba de cambio estructural, la cual nos indica la necesidad de estimar dos modelos, uno para el período 1940-1980 y otro para el período 1984-2010. En ambas estimaciones se encuentra un efecto positivo del capital extranjero (acumulación de IED), privado nacional y público, sobre la productividad del trabajo, pero con muy diferentes valores, lo que refleja la importancia de la estructura para determinar el impacto de la IED. En el primer período el crecimiento está liderado por la inversión pública, pero también se encuentra que el impacto de la inversión extranjera sobre la productividad del trabajo es mayor que el de la privada nacional. En el segundo período el crecimiento es liderado por la inversión privada nacional y sorprendentemente se registra un efecto muy reducido de la inversión extranjera, lo que podría deberse precisamente al cambio estructural.

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    File URL: http://cee.colmex.mx/documentos/documentos-de-trabajo/2012/dt201212.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos in its series Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos with number 2012-12.

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    Date of creation: May 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2012-12

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    Web page: http://www.colmex.mx/centros/cee/
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    Keywords: Mexican economy; economic growth; foreign direct investment;

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