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The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia

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  • Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos
  • Ms. Tatiana Damjanovic

Abstract

This paper reviews the economic conditions in central Asia at the time of the Russian financial crisis of August 1998; the channels by which the crisis was transmitted to the central Asian region; and the policy responses. The paper concludes that, while real exchange rates of central Asian national currencies vis-à-vis the Russian ruble have returned to their pre-crisis levels following the nominal devaluations that ensued, other indicators of external competitiveness, such as unit labor cost indices, suggest the need for further surveillance in this area. Also, it is not yet clear if full exchange rate flexibility has been established in central Asia despite the protracted and costly exits from the nominal exchange rates in place at the time of the crisis. Finally, the debt-to-GDP ratios in central Asia, which grew rapidly between 1998 and 1999 in the context of large exchange rate adjustments, remain a challenge for the Tajik and Kyrgyz authorities, in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos & Ms. Tatiana Damjanovic, 2001. "The Russian Financial Crisis and its Consequences for Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2001/169, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2001/169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ms. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 2001/046, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-333, August.
    3. Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 1998. "Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade," IMF Working Papers 1998/081, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Natalia T. Tamirisa, 1999. "Exchange and Capital Controls as Barriers to Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(1), pages 1-4.
    5. Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pasadilla, Gloria O., 2010. "Financial Crisis, Trade Finance, and SMEs: Case of Central Asia," ADBI Working Papers 187, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    2. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Vagliasindi, Maria, 2006. "Capacity utilization of the Kazakhstani firms and the Russian financial crisis: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 231-248, October.
    3. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2018. "Uncovering equity market contagion among BRICS countries: An application of the multivariate GARCH model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 36-44.
    4. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
    5. Kakhkharov, Jakhongir, 2004. "Uzbek-Russian Economic Relations and the Impact of the Russian Economic Performance on Uzbekistan's Growth and Foreign Trade," MPRA Paper 64026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Arman Mazhikeyev & T.Huw Edwards & Marian Rizov, 2014. "Openness and Isolation: the comparative trade performance of the Former Soviet Central Asian countries," Discussion Paper Series 2014_02, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Feb 2014.
    7. ARMAN MAZHIKEYEV & Huw Edwards, 2015. "Consequences Of Asymmetric Deeper Eurasian Economic Integration," EcoMod2015 8365, EcoMod.
    8. Mazhikeyev, Arman & Edwards, T. Huw & Rizov, Marian, 2015. "Openness and isolation: The trade performance of the former Soviet Central Asian countries," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 935-947.

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