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Comparative Analysis of Zero Coupon Yield Curve Estimation Methods Using JGB Price Data

Author

Listed:
  • Kentaro Kikuchi

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kentarou.kikuchi@boj.or.jp))

  • Kohei Shintani

    (Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: kouhei.shintani@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the diverse methods for estimating the Japanese government bond (JGB) zero coupon yield curve (hereafter, zero curve) according to the criteria that estimation methods should meet. Previous studies propose many methods for estimating the zero curve from the market prices of coupon-bearing bonds. In estimating the JGB zero curve, however, an undesirable method may fail to accurately grasp the features of the zero curve. In order to select an appropriate estimation method for the JGB, we set the following criteria for the zero curve: (1) estimates should not fall below zero, (2) estimates should not take abnormal values, (3) estimates should have a good fit to market prices, and (4) the zero curve should have little unevenness. The method which meets these criteria enables us to estimate the zero curve with a good fit to the JGB market prices and a proper interpolation to grasp the features of the zero curve. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the method proposed in Steeley [1991] is the best in light of the criteria for the JGB price data. In fact, the zero curve based on this method can fully capture the characteristics of the JGB zero curve in a prolonged period of accommodative monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kentaro Kikuchi & Kohei Shintani, 2012. "Comparative Analysis of Zero Coupon Yield Curve Estimation Methods Using JGB Price Data," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-04, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:12-e-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hattori, Takahiro & Miyake, Hiroki, 2016. "Yield Curve for Japanese Agency Bonds: From 2002 to the Present," MPRA Paper 71487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wali Ullah & Yasumasa Matsuda, 2014. "Generalized Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Model : Do the second slope and curvature factors improve the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast?," TERG Discussion Papers 312, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    3. Wali Ullah, 2020. "The arbitrage-free generalized Nelson–Siegel term structure model: Does a good in-sample fit imply better out-of-sample forecasts?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1243-1284, September.
    4. Yoshiyuki Suimon & Hiroki Sakaji & Kiyoshi Izumi & Hiroyasu Matsushima, 2020. "Autoencoder-Based Three-Factor Model for the Yield Curve of Japanese Government Bonds and a Trading Strategy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Kentaro Kikuchi, "undated". "A Term Structure Interest Rate Model with the Exit Time from the Negative Interest Rate Policy," Discussion Papers CRR Discussion Paper Series B: Financial 19, Shiga University, Faculty of Economics,Center for Risk Research.
    6. Hattori, Takahiro, 2018. "Decomposing Japanese municipal bond spreads: Default and liquidity premiums in times of crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    7. Hattori, Takahiro & Miyake, Hiroki, 2016. "The Japan Municipal Bond Yield Curve: 2002 to the Present," MPRA Paper 69725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hattori, Takahiro, 2023. "The premium and settlement of CCPs during the financial crisis: Evidence from the JGB market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Takahiro Hattori & Hiroki Miyake, 2016. "The Japan Municipal Bond Yield Curve: 2002 to the Present," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 118-118, June.
    10. Mmakganya Mashoene & Mishelle Doorasamy & Rajendra Rajaram, 2021. "The application of different term-structure models to estimate South African real spot rate curve," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 21-36, July.
    11. Nagao, Ryoya & Kondo, Yoshihiro & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki, 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy: Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Hattori, Takahiro, 2019. "J-liquidity measure: The term structure of the liquidity premium in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 61-72.
    13. Wali ULLAH & Khadija Malik BARI, 2018. "The Term Structure of Government Bond Yields in an Emerging Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-28, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coupon-bearing government bond; zero coupon yield; piecewise polynomial function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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