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Incorporation financial sector risk into monetary policy models: application to Chile

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This article analyzes whether market-based financial stability indicators (FSIs) should be included in monetary policy models and, if so, how.1 Since the economy and interest rates affect financial sector credit risk, and the financial sector affects the economy, this article builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. More specifically, should the central bank explicitly include the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function? This is the most important question to be answered in this article. The alternative would be to react only indirectly to financial risk by reacting to inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) gaps, since they already include the effect that financial factors have on the economy.

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Paper provided by Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines in its series ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers with number inv229.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ila:ilades:inv229

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Keywords: financial sector risk; monetary policy models;

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  2. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 06/149, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  4. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
  5. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
  6. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Carmen Gloria Silva, 2008. "Volatilidad de Indices Accionarios: El caso del IPSA," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 45(132), pages 217-233.
  7. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The End," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Renata Karkowska, 2013. "Instability In The Cee Banking System. Evidence From The Recent Financial Crisis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5, pages 535-547, December.
  2. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Financial Linkages Across Korean Banks," IMF Working Papers 11/201, International Monetary Fund.

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