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Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements

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Author Info

  • Dean A. DeRosa

    (ADR International Ltd.)

  • John P. Gilbert

    (Utah State University)

Abstract

This paper examines the historical record of eight recent free trade agreements (FTAs). It also investigates the predictive power of two popular quantitative world trade models—the single-equation gravity model and the multiequation comput-able general equilibrium (CGE) model—as applied to three major trade liberalization agreements adopted during the 1990s: Mercosur, NAFTA, and the Uruguay Round Agreement, using the Rose gravity model and the GTAP general equilibrium model. Both models are found accurate in some instances, but intervening influences in the wake of trade liberalization episodes confound the challenge of drawing a strong conclusion in favor of one modeling approach over the other. Between the “naïve” gravity model and “naïve” CGE model predictions, we find that the former tends to overpredict intrabloc trade expansion (especially over horizons of five years and less) while the latter tends to underpredict. CGE models remain favored for ex post analysis of welfare impacts and the direct and indirect linkages between policy reforms and the numerous other economic variables of concern to policymakers and the public at large.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP05-13.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp05-13

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Keywords: gravity models; CGE models; regional trading arrangements;

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References

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  1. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, 02.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72.
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. John Gilbert & Thomas Wahl, 2002. "Applied General Equilibrium Assessments of Trade Libereralisation in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 697-731, 05.
  8. Robert Scollay & John P. Gilbert, 2001. "New Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia Pacific?," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa63, November.
  9. Francois, Joseph & McDonald, Brad & Nordström, Håkan, 1996. "A User's Guide to Uruguay Round Assessments," CEPR Discussion Papers 1410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Diao, Xinshen & Somwaru, Agapi, 2000. "An Inquiry on General Equilibrium Effects of MERCOSUR--An Intertemporal World Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 557-588, September.
  11. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
  12. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elena IANCHOVICHINA & Will MARTIN, 2006. "Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 45-65.
  2. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
  3. Zhuang, Renan & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Impacts of Sugar Free Trade Agreements on the U.S. Sugar Industry," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21486, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Indira M. Hapsari & Carlos Mangunsong, 2006. "Determinants of AFTA Members’ Trade Flows and Potential for Trade Diversion," Working Papers 2106, Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade (ARTNeT), an initiative of UNESCAP and IDRC, Canada..
  5. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Peter Egger & Patrick A. McLaughlin, 2008. "Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 461-497, 04.
  6. Hung-Gay Fung & Jian Zhang, 2007. "An Assessment of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement Between China and Hong Kong," Chinese Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 36-50, April.
  7. Tamini, Lota & Ghazalian, Pascal & Gervais, Jean-Philippe & Larue, Bruno, 2006. "Domestic support and tariff reductions in the presence of non-tariff barriers: A gravity model for primary and processed agricultural products," MPRA Paper 2743, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Dec 2006.
  8. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
  9. Zhuang, Renan & Koo, Won W., 2007. "Implications of Growth in China for the U.S. and Other Countries," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 10257, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
  10. Sami Bensassi & José de Sousa & Joachim Jarreau, 2013. "Preferential Trade Agreements Proliferation: Sorting out the Effects," Working Papers 2013-04, CEPII research center.
  11. Scott L. BAIER & Jeffrey H. BERGSTRAND & Peter EGGER, 2009. "The Growth Of Regional Economic Integration Agreements And The Middle East," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 29, pages 11-30.

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