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Qualifications and earnings in Britain: how reliable are conventional OLS estimates of the returns to education?

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Lorraine Dearden

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Abstract

The paper estimates the returns to education for a cohort of individuals born in Britain in March 1958 who have been followed since birth until the age of 33. The data used has a wealth of information on family background including parental education, social class and interest shown in the child's education as well as measures of ability. The nature of our data allows us to directly assess the relative importance of omitted ability and family background bias as well as biases arising from measurement error in education qualiţation variables which have been found to be important in other studies. The paper also looks at possible biases arising from compositional diĥrences between individuals in work and those out of work. This ѣomposition bias' arising from self-selection into employment is generally ignored in the returns to schooling literature and is why most studies focus only on men (for whom it is assumed this is much less of a problem). The paper also examines whether there is evidence of heterogeneity in the returns to education as well as the impact of education on gender wage diĥrentials. The paper Ůds that conventional OLS estimates, which assume that education is exogenous, are reasonable estimates of the true causal impact of education on wages. In the UK it would appear that the eĥcts of measurement error bias and composition bias directly oijet the countervailing eĥct of unobserved ability and family background bias for most qualiţations. The results from the paper suggest that conventional OLS estimates of the returns to education can generally be relied upon for policy decisions. The paper also Ůds evidence of heterogeneity in the returns to education in Britain. The results fromthe paper suggest that individuals undertaking schooling involving some sort of formal qualiţation have signiţantly larger rates of return than individuals who complete the same number of years of schooling but who obtain no formal qualiţations. There is also some evidence that individuals with lower tastes for education, have signiţantly higher marginal returns to certain education qualiţations. We also Ůd that post-school qualiţations, particularly degree qualiţations, play an important role in reducing gender wage diĥrentials. The data used has a wealth of information on family background including parental education, social class and interest shown in the child's education as well as measures of ability. The nature of our data allows us to directly assess the relative importance of omitted ability and family background bias as well as biases arising from measurement error in education qualification variables which have been found to be important in other studies. The paper also looks at possible biases arising from compositional differences between individuals in work and those out of work. This ѣomposition bias' arising from self-selection into employment is generally ignored in the returns to schooling literature and is why most studies focus only on men (for whom it is assumed this is much less of a problem). The paper also examines whether there is evidence of heterogeneity in the returns to education as well as the impact of education on gender wage differentials. The paper finds that conventional OLS estimates, which assume that education is exogenous, are reasonable estimates of the true causal impact of education on wages. In the UK it would appear that the effects of measurement error bias and composition bias directly oijet the countervailing effect of unobserved ability and family background bias for most qualifications. The results from the paper suggest that conventional OLS estimates of the returns to education can generally be relied upon for policy decisions. The paper also finds evidence of heterogeneity in the returns to education in Britain. The results fromthe paper suggest that individuals undertaking schooling involving some sort of formal qualification have significantly larger rates of return than individuals who complete the same number of years of schooling but who obtain no formal qualifications. There is also some evidence that individuals with lower tastes for education, have significantly higher marginal returns to certain education qualifications. We also find that post-school qualifications, particularly degree qualifications, play an important role in reducing gender wage differentials.

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Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W99/07.

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Length: 48 PP.
Date of creation: Jul 1999
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:99/07

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lorraine Dearden, 1998. "Ability, families, education and earnings in Britain," IFS Working Papers W98/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Costas Meghir & Mårten Palme, 1999. "Assessing the effect of schooling on earnings using a social experiment," IFS Working Papers W99/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ronald Oaxaca, . "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," Working Papers 396, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Colm Harmon; & Ian Walker, 1995. "Estimates of Economic Return to Schooling in the UK," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n540195, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  5. Orley Ashenfelter & David Zimmerman, 1993. "Estimates of the Return to Schooling From Sibling Data: Fathers, Sons and Brothers," Working Papers 697, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Griliches, Zvi & Mason, William M, 1972. "Education, Income, and Ability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(3), pages S74-S103, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Colm Harmon & Ian Walker, 1996. "The marginal and average returns to schooling," IFS Working Papers W96/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    Other versions:
  8. Lorraine Dearden & Javier Ferri & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The effect of school quality on educational attainment and wages," IFS Working Papers W00/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. James J. Heckman, 1995. "Instrumental Variables: A Cautionary Tale," NBER Technical Working Papers 0185, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Susan Harkness, 1996. "The gender earnings gap: evidence from the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 1-36, May. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Card, 1993. "Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling," Working Papers 696, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Blackburn, McKinley L & Neumark, David, 1993. "Omitted-Ability Bias and the Increase in the Return to Schooling," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(3), pages 521-44, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Harmon, C & Ian Walker, 1995. "Estimates of the economic return to schooling for the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/12, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Harmon, Colm & Walker, Ian, 1999. "The marginal and average returns to schooling in the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 879-887, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ashenfelter, Orley & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Estimates of the Economic Returns to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1157-73, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. repec:fth:prinin:317 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. repec:fth:prinin:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Butcher, Kristin F & Case, Anne, 1994. "The Effect of Sibling Sex Composition on Women's Education and Earnings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 531-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Smith, Richard J & Blundell, Richard W, 1986. "An Exogeneity Test for a Simultaneous Equation Tobit Model with an Application to Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 679-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Arellano, Manuel & Meghir, Costas, 1992. "Female Labour Supply and On-the-Job Search: An Empirical Model Estimated Using Complementary Data Sets," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(3), pages 537-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. John Bound & David A. Jaeger & Regina Baker, 1993. "The Cure Can Be Worse than the Disease: A Cautionary Tale Regarding Instrumental Variables," NBER Technical Working Papers 0137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Griliches, Zvi, 1977. "Estimating the Returns to Schooling: Some Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Maurin, Eric & McNally, Sandra, 2005. "Vive la Révolution! Long Term Returns of 1968 to the Angry Students," CEPR Discussion Papers 4940, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gavan Conlon, 2001. "The differential in earnings premia between academically and vocationally trained males in the United Kingdom," CEE Discussion Papers 0011, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mary A. Silles, 2005. "Personality, Education and Earnings," CAM Working Papers 2005-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2001. "Estimating the Returns to Education: Models, Methods and Results," CEE Discussion Papers 0016, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Joanne Kathryn Lindley & Pamela Lenton, 2006. "The Over-Education of UK Immigrants: Evidence from the Labour Force Survey," Working Papers 2006001, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richard Blundell & Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2003. "Evaluating the impact of education on earnings in the UK: Models, methods and results from the NCDS," IFS Working Papers W03/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Dorothe Bonjour & Lynn Cherkas & Jonathan Haskel & Denise Hawkes & Tim Spector, 2002. "Returns to Education: Evidence from UK Twins," CEE Discussion Papers 0022, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Massimiliano Bratti & Robin Naylor & Jeremy Smith, 2005. "Variations in the Wage Returns to a First Degree: Evidence from the British Cohort Study 1970," IZA Discussion Papers 1631, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Erich Battistin & Barbara Sianesi, 2006. "Misreported schooling and returns to education: evidence from the UK," CeMMAP working papers CWP07/06, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  10. Tsung-Ping Chung, 2000. "The Returns to Education and Training: Evidence from the Malaysian Family Life Surveys," Studies in Economics 0007, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  11. Fernando Galindo-Rueda & Anna Vignoles, 2003. "Class Ridden or Meritocratic? An Economic Analysis of Recent Changes in Britain," CEE Discussion Papers 0032, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. David Campbell, 2001. "Rates of Return to Schooling and the Quality of Education in England and Wales," Studies in Economics 0115, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  13. Joanne Lindley, 2008. "The Over-Education of UK Immigrants and Minority Ethnic Groups: Evidence from the Labour Force Survey," Working Papers 2007013, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Trostel, P. & Walker, I., 2000. "Education and Work," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 554, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Sonia Bhalotra & Claudia Sanhueza, 2004. "Parametric and Semi-parametric Estimations of the Return to Schooling in South Africa," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 294, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lorraine Dearden & Steven McIntosh & Michal Myck & Anna Vignoles, 2000. "The Returns to Academic and Vocational Qualifications in Britain," CEE Discussion Papers 0004, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Bratti, Massimiliano & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2007. "Different returns to different degrees? Evidence from the British Cohort Study 1970," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 783, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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