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Aging and Economic Opportunities: Major World Regions around the Turn of the Century

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Author Info
Jere R. Behrman
Suzanne Duryea
Miguel Székely

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Abstract

This paper presents new evidence for major world regions and for the most populous countries in each region on associations between the average ages of populations and three groups of economic outcomes: (1) macroeconomic aggregates (domestic saving as a share of GDP, GDP per capita, capital per worker and tax revenue as a share of GDP); (2) governmental expenditures on education and health; and (3) social indicators (inequality, unemployment, homicide rates, and schooling progression rates). The results suggest that the variables considered follow clear age-related patterns, that the patterns differ by regions, and that the patterns differ with different policy regimes related to trade openness, domestic financial market deepening and macroeconomic volatility. The evidence is consistent with the possibility that some age structure shifts can provide favorable conditions for development. Apparently regions such as East Asia in recent decades have been able to benefit from this demographic opportunity. However, in others such as Latin America and the Caribbean--which is at the verge of experiencing the largest age structure shifts in the coming decades--creating an adequate economic environment to translate the opportunity into higher living standards for its population is a major challenge.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4180.

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Date of creation: Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4180

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ahmad, Sultan, 1994. "Improving inter-spatial and inter-temporal comparability of national accounts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 53-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Deaton, A. & Paxson, C., 1998. "Saving and Growth: Another Look at the Cohort Evidence," Papers 182, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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  3. Lam, David, 1993. "Demographic variables and income inequality," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 18, pages 1015-1059 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Suzanne Duryea & Miguel Székely, 1998. "Labor Markets in Latin America: A Supply-Side Story," RES Working Papers 4120, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Deaton, Angus & Paxson, Christina, 1994. "Intertemporal Choice and Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 437-67, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hanushek, Eric A, 1995. "Interpreting Recent Research on Schooling in Developing Countries," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 227-46, August.
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  9. Behrman, Jere R. & Rosenzweig, Mark R., 1994. "Caveat emptor: Cross-country data on education and the labor force," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 147-171, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Chamie, Joseph, 1994. "Population databases in development analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 131-146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Birdsall, Nancy, 1985. "Public inputs and child schooling in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 67-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Population Increase," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 1(3), pages 497-518, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Behrman, Jere R & Birdsall, Nancy, 1983. "The Quality of Schooling: Quantity Alone is Misleading," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 928-46, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kremer, Michael R, 1995. "Research on Schooling: What We Know and What We Don't: A Comment," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 247-54, August.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paúl Melgar & Luis Fernando Ramírez & Scott McNiven & Rosa Mery Mejía & Ann DiGirolamo & John Hoddinott & John A. Maluccio, 2008. "Resource Flows Among Three Generations in Guatemala Study (2007–08): Definitions, tracking, data collection, coverage, and attrition," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0803, Middlebury College, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. K. Navaneetham, 2002. "Age structural transition and economic growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 337, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India. [Downloadable!]
  3. Suzanne Duryea & Jere R. Behrman & Miguel Székely, 1999. "Schooling Investments and Macroeconomic Conditions: A Micro-Macro Investigation for Latin America and the Caribbean," RES Working Papers 4184, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Suzanne Duryea & Jere R. Behrman & Miguel Székely, 1999. "Inversiones en enseñanza y condiciones macroeconómicas: investigación micro-macro de América Latina y el Caribe," RES Working Papers 4185, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-10.


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