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Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings, and Perspectives


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  • Kelley, Allen C.
  • Schmidt, Robert M.
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    Building upon recent Barro models that account for the impacts of various economic and political factors conditioning the pace of economic growth, we evaluate the merits of alternative specifications that expose the impacts of demographic change. For a sample of 89 countries, we arrive at the qualified judgment that rapid population growth exerted a fairly strong, adverse impact, on the pace of economic growth over the period 1960-1995. The positive impacts of density, size, and labor force entry were swamped by the costs of rearing children and maintaining an enlarged youth-dependency age structure.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 99-01.

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    Date of creation: 1999
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Forthcoming in POPULATION DOES MATTER: DEMOGRAPHY, GROWTH, AND POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD, Nancy Birdsall, Allen C. Kelley and Steven Sinding, editors, Oxford University Press, 2001.
    Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:99-01

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    Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097
    Phone: (919) 660-1800
    Fax: (919) 684-8974
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    Cited by:
    1. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," UCLA Economics Working Papers 803, UCLA Department of Economics.


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