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The Comovement between Fuel Prices and the General Price level in Australia

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Author Info
Lei Lei Song () (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the general price level and the relative price of fuel by measuring correlation from VAR forecast errors. The results suggest a significant positive correlation between quarterly changes in the relative price of fuel and the CPI, at least in the short to medium term from two to four years. The finding has important implications for measuring the long-term trend in inflation as relative price changes in fuel contain important information about future inflation.

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File URL: http://melbourneinstitute.com/wp/wp2006n17.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2006n17.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2006n17

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Postal: Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010 Australia
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
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Web page: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com/
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Related research
Keywords:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Wouter J. den Haan & Andrew Levin, 1996. "A Practitioner's Guide to Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 96-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Hooker, Mark A, 2002. "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 540-61, May.
  5. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.


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