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Systemic Weather Risk and Crop Insurance: The Case of China

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  • Wei Xu
  • Ostap Okhrin
  • Martin Odening
  • Ji Cao

Abstract

The supply of affordable crop insurance is hampered by the existence of systemic weather risk which results in large risk premiums. In this article, we assess the systemic nature of weather risk for 17 agricultural production regions in China and explore the possibility of spatial diversification of this risk. We simulate the buffer load of hypothetical temperature-based insurance and investigate the relation between the size of the buffer load and the size of the trading area of the insurance. The analysis makes use of a hierarchical Archimedean copula approach (HAC) which allows flexible modeling of the joint loss distribution and reveals the dependence structure of losses in different insured regions. Our results show a significant decrease of the required risk loading when the insured area expands. Nevertheless, a considerable part of undiversifiable risk remains with the insurer. We find that the spatial diversification effect depends on the type of the weather index and the strike level of the insurance. Our findings are relevant for insurers and insurance regulators as they shed light on the viability of private crop insurance in China.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2010-053.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-053

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Keywords: crop insurance; systemic weather risk; hierarchical Archimedean copulas;

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Cited by:
  1. Nicole Wiebach & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2010. "Context Effects as Customer Reaction on Delisting of Brands," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening, 2013. "Coping with systemic risk in index-based crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 1-13, 01.
  3. Enno Mammen & Christoph Rothe & Melanie Schienle, 2010. "Nonparametric Regression with Nonparametrically Generated Covariates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-059, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R., 2011. "Every symmetric 3×3 global game of strategic complementarities has noise-independent selection," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 749-754.
  5. Xiaofeng Cao & Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2014. "Modelling spatiotemporal variability of temperature," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin, 2013. "Can expert knowledge compensate for data scarcity in crop insurance pricing?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-030, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Malec, Peter & Schienle, Melanie, 2011. "Capturing the zero: A new class of zero-augmented distributions and multiplicative error processes," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/25, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  8. Franziska Schulze, 2010. "Spatial Dependencies in German Matching Functions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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