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On the systemic nature of weather risk

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Author Info

  • Wei Xu
  • Guenther Filler
  • Martin Odening
  • Ostap Okhrin

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the losses of weather-related insurance at different regional levels. The possibility of spatial diversification of insurance is explored by estimating the joint occurrence on unfavorable weather conditions in different locations, looking particularly at the tail behavior of the loss distribution. Design/methodology/approach – Joint weather-related losses are estimated using copulas. Copulas avoid the direct estimation of multivariate distributions but allow for much greater flexibility in modeling the dependence structure of weather risks compared with simple correlation coefficients. Findings – Results indicate that indemnity payments based on temperature as well as on cumulative rainfall show strong stochastic dependence even at a large regional scale. Thus the possibility to reduce risk exposure by increasing the trading area of insurance is limited. Research limitations/implications – The empirical findings are limited by a rather weak database. In that case the estimation of high-dimensional copulas leads to large estimation errors. Practical implications – The paper includes implications for the quantification of systemic weather risk which is important for the rate making of crop insurance and reinsurance. Originality/value – This paper's results highlight how important the choice of the statistical approach is when modeling the dependence structure of weather risks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Agricultural Finance Review.

Volume (Year): 70 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 267-284

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Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:70:y:2010:i:2:p:267-284

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Related research

Keywords: Agriculture; Crops; Insurance; Financial risk; Multivariate analysis.;

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References

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  1. Markus Junker & Angelika May, 2005. "Measurement of aggregate risk with copulas," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(3), pages 428-454, December.
  2. Mario J. Miranda & Joseph W. Glauber, 1997. "Systemic Risk, Reinsurance, and the Failure of Crop Insurance Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(1), pages 206-215.
  3. Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2008. "Application of Copulas to Estimation of Joint Crop Yield Distributions," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6264, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Martin Odening & Oliver Musshoff & Wei Xu, 2007. "Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 135-156, May.
  5. H. Holly Wang & Hao Zhang, 2003. "On the Possibility of a Private Crop Insurance Market: A Spatial Statistics Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 111-124.
  6. repec:sae:ecolab:v:16:y:2006:i:2:p:1-2 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Xu, Wei & Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2008. "Optimal Design of Weather Bonds," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6781, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  8. Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle, 2005. "Value-at-Risk Calculations with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  9. Barry K. Goodwin, 2001. "Problems with Market Insurance in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 643-649.
  10. World Bank, 2005. "Managing Agricultural Production Risk : Innovations in Developing Countries," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14434, The World Bank.
  11. Wolfgang Härdle & Ostap Okhrin & Yarema Okhrin, 2008. "Modeling Dependencies in Finance using Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-043, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Martin, Steven W. & Barnett, Barry J. & Coble, Keith H., 2001. "Developing And Pricing Precipitation Insurance," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 26(01), July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ostap Okhrin, 2010. "Fitting high-dimensional Copulae to Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2010-022, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Ritter, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2012. "Minimizing geographical basis risk of weather derivatives using a multi-site rainfall model," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122527, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  3. Roland Strausz, 2009. "The Political Economy of Regulatory Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-040, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Michał Grajek & Lars-Hendrik R�ller, 2012. "Regulation and Investment in Network Industries: Evidence from European Telecoms," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 189 - 216.
  5. Barbara Choroś & Wolfgang Härdle & Ostap Okhrin, 2009. "CDO and HAC," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-038, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Schulte-Geers, Matthias & Berg, Ernst, 2011. "Modelling farm production risk with copulae instead of correlations," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115996, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  7. Buchholz, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver, 2014. "The role of weather derivatives and portfolio effects in agricultural water management," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Maquarie, Australia 165812, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  8. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening, 2013. "Coping with systemic risk in index-based crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 1-13, 01.
  9. Bokusheva, Raushan, 2010. "Measuring the dependence structure between yield and weather variables," MPRA Paper 22786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Raushan Bokusheva, 2011. "Measuring dependence in joint distributions of yield and weather variables," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(1), pages 120-141, May.
  11. Maria Grith & Wolfgang Härdle & Juhyun Park, 2009. "Shape invariant modelling pricing kernels and risk aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-041, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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