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Analysis of rainfall derivatives using daily precipitation models: opportunities and pitfalls

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Author Info

  • Martin Odening
  • Oliver Musshoff
  • Wei Xu

Abstract

This study examines rainfall variability and its implications for wheat production risk in northeast Germany. The hedging effectiveness of rainfall options and the role of geographical basis risk are analyzed using a daily precipitation model. Simpler pricing methods such as the burn analysis and the index value simulation serve as benchmarks for comparison. It is found that the choice of statistical approach may lead to considerable differences in the estimation results. Daily precipitation models should be used with some caution in the context of derivative pricing because they tend to underestimate rainfall variability. This is unexpected, because daily simulation models are usually preferred in the context of temperature-based weather indexes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Agricultural Finance Review.

Volume (Year): 67 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 135-156

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Handle: RePEc:eme:afrpps:v:67:y:2007:i:1:p:135-156

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Related research

Keywords: Hedging effectiveness; Precipitation modeling; Weather derivatives;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Turvey, Calum G. & Kong, Rong & Belltawn, Burgen, 2009. "Weather Risk and the Viability of Weather Insurance In Western China," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49362, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  2. Guenther Filler & Martin Odening & Ostap Okhrin & Wei Xu, 2009. "On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-002, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  3. Bokusheva, Raushan & Breustedt, Gunnar & Heidelbach, Olaf, 2007. "Ex-ante evaluation of weather-based index insurance and area-yield insurance for reducing crop yield risk," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9250, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. López Cabrera, Brenda & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2013. "Pricing rainfall futures at the CME," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4286-4298.
  5. Leif Erec Heimfarth & Oliver Musshoff, 2011. "Weather index-based insurances for farmers in the North China Plain: An analysis of risk reduction potential and basis risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 218-239, July.
  6. Brenda López Cabrera & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2013. "Pricing Rainfall Derivatives at the CME," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-005, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Banerjee, Chirantan & Berg, Ernst, 2012. "Policy for implementation of Index Based Weather Insurance revisited: the case of Nicaragua," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122448, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  8. Shen, Zhiwei & Odening, Martin & Okhrin, Ostap, 2013. "Can expert knowledge compensate for data scarcity in crop insurance pricing?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149431, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  9. Ritter, Matthias & Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2012. "Minimizing geographical basis risk of weather derivatives using a multi-site rainfall model," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122527, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Xu, Wei, 2006. "Zur Quantifizierung Des Basisrisikos Von Wetterderivaten," 46th Annual Conference, Giessen, Germany, October 4-6, 2006 14947, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  11. Xu, Wei & Odening, Martin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2007. "Indifference Pricing of Weather Insurance," 101st Seminar, July 5-6, 2007, Berlin Germany 9267, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  12. Markus Stowasser, 2011. "Modelling rain risk: a multi-order Markov chain model approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, January.
  13. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2008. "Hedging von Mengenrisiken in der Landwirtschaft – Wie teuer dürfen „ineffektive“ Wetterderivate sein?," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 57(5).
  14. Wolfgang Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2009. "Implied Market Price of Weather Risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-001, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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