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Performance Sampling and Bimodal Duration Dependence

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  • Jerker Denrell

    ()

  • Zur Shapira

    ()

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    Abstract

    Performance sampling models of duration dependence in employee turnover and firm exit predict that hazard rates will initially be low, gradually rise to a maximum, and then fall. As we note in this paper, however, several empirical duration distributions have bimodal hazard rates. This paper shows that such bimodal hazard rates can be derived from existing models of performance sampling by small changes in the assumptions. In particular, bimodal hazard rates emerge if the mean or the variance of performances changes over time, which would occur if employees or firms face more challenging tasks over time. Using data on turnover in law firms, we show that the hazard rate predicted by these models fit data better than existing models.

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    File URL: http://ratio.huji.ac.il/sites/default/files/publications/dp431.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem in its series Discussion Paper Series with number dp431.

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    Length: 54 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2006
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:huj:dispap:dp431

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    Keywords: Duration Dependence; Performance Sampling; Turnover;

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    1. Sherwin Rosen, 1981. "Studies in Labor Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rose81-1, July.
    2. March, James G., 1988. "Variable risk preferences and adaptive aspirations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 5-24, January.
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