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Is Lottery Gambling Addictive?

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  • Jonathan Guryan
  • Melissa S. Kearney

Abstract

We present an empirical test for the addictiveness of lottery gambling that exploits an exogenous shock to local market consumption of lottery gambling. It uses the sale of a winning jackpot ticket in a zip code as an instrument for present consumption and tests for a causal relationship between present and future consumption. This test estimates the time path of persistence nonparametrically. Data from the Texas State Lottery suggests that after 6 months, roughly half of the initial increase in lottery consumption is maintained. After 18 months, roughly 40 percent of the initial shock persists, though estimates become less precise. (JEL D12, H27, H71)

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Guryan & Melissa S. Kearney, 2010. "Is Lottery Gambling Addictive?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 90-110, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:2:y:2010:i:3:p:90-110
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.2.3.90
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    Cited by:

    1. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2013. "The Impact of State Lotteries and Casinos on State Bankruptcy Filings," Working Papers 1302, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    2. Kent R. Grote & Victor A. Matheson, 2014. "The Impact of State Lotteries and Casinos on State Bankruptcy Filings," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 121-135, March.
    3. Edmund R. Thompson & Gerard P. Prendergast & Gerard H. Dericks, 2021. "Personality, Luck Beliefs, and (Non-?) Problem Lottery Gambling," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 703-722, April.
    4. Shawn Cole & Benjamin Iverson & Peter Tufano, 2022. "Can Gambling Increase Savings? Empirical Evidence on Prize-Linked Savings Accounts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3282-3308, May.
    5. Richard A. Dunn & Michael A. Trousdale, 2015. "Estimating the Demand for Lottery Gambling," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(6), pages 691-716, November.
    6. Aidan R. Vining & David L. Weimer, 2013. "An assessment of important issues concerning the application of benefit–cost analysis to social policy," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 1, pages 25-62, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Agrawal, David R. & Trandel, Gregory A., 2019. "Dynamics of policy adoption with state dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    8. Avery Haviv & Yufeng Huang & Nan Li, 2020. "Intertemporal Demand Spillover Effects on Video Game Platforms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4788-4807, October.
    9. Melisa Bubonya & David P. Byrne, 2020. "Supplying Slot Machines to the Poor," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 1081-1109, January.
    10. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    11. Brad Humphreys & Levi Perez, 2012. "Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 929-945, June.
    12. De Paola, Maria & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2014. "Media exposure and individual choices: Evidence from lottery players," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 385-391.
    13. Soo Hong Chew & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2021. "Adversity-hope hypothesis: Air pollution raises lottery demand in China," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 247-280, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H27 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Other Sources of Revenue
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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