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Estimating the Effect of Fertility Decisions on Child Labor and Schooling

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Abstract

We use an econometric model of fertility and children's activities to examine the causal effects of fertility on a child's activities taking the endogeneity of fertility into account. Our specification uses latent factors to allow for unobserved influences on fertility to affect a child's activities. We apply maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques to estimate the parameters of our models. We find that the effect of fertility has a large downward bias in naive models. The effect of fertility on the probability of attending school is twice as large once its endogeneity is taken into account. The effect of fertility on the probability of work changes sign and becomes statistically significant.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hunter College: Department of Economics in its series Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers with number 211.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:211

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  1. Shelly Lundberg & Elaina Rose, 1999. "The Effect of Sons and Daughters on Men's Labor Supply and Wages," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0033, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
  3. Pushkar Maitra & Ranjan Ray, 2000. "The Joint Estimation of Child Participation in Schooling and Employment: Comparative Evidence from Three Continents," ASARC Working Papers 2000-04, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
  4. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1998. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 109-129, November.
  5. Carrasco, Raquel, 2001. "Binary Choice with Binary Endogenous Regressors in Panel Data: Estimating the Effect of Fertility on Female Labor Participation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 385-94, October.
  6. Ravallion, Martin & Wodon, Quentin, 1999. "Does child labor displace schooling? - evidence on behavioral responses to an enrollment subsidy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2116, The World Bank.
  7. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, March Cit.
  8. Jensen, P. & Nielsen, H.S., 1996. "Child Labour or School Attendance? Evidence from Zambia," Papers 96-14, Centre for Labour Market and Social Research, Danmark-.
  9. Ray, R., 1998. "Analysis of Child Labour in Peru and Pakistan: a Comparative Study," Papers 1998-05, Tasmania - Department of Economics.
  10. Hotz, V Joseph & Miller, Robert A, 1988. "An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 91-118, January.
  11. Gong, X. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1997. "Family Structure and Female Labour Supply in Mexico City," Discussion Paper 1997-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  12. Edward Vytlacil & James J. Heckman, 2001. "Policy-Relevant Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 107-111, May.
  13. repec:ese:iserwp:98-02 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Blundell, Richard & Smith, Richard J., 1994. "Coherency and estimation in simultaneous models with censored or qualitative dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 355-373.
  15. Moffitt, Robert, 1984. "Profiles of Fertility, Labour Supply and Wages of Married Women: A Complete Life-Cycle Model," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 263-78, April.
  16. Marco Francesconi, 2002. "A Joint Dynamic Model of Fertility and Work of Married Women," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(2), pages 336-380, Part.
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Cited by:
  1. Souza, André Portela & Ponczek, Vladimir P., 2012. "New evidence of the causal effect of family size on child quality in a developing country," Textos para discussão 283, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  2. Serra, Renata, 2009. "Child fostering in Africa: When labor and schooling motives may coexist," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 157-170, January.
  3. Ponczek, Vladimir Pinheiro & Souza, André Portela Fernandes de, 2007. "The causal effect of family size on child labor and education," Textos para discussão 162, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  4. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Karamat Ali, 2005. "Economically Active Children and Home-care Children: How Much They Differ," Labor and Demography 0510013, EconWPA.

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