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Estimating the Effect of Fertility Decisions on Child Labour

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Author Info
P.Deb
F.Rosati

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Abstract

We construct a joint distribution of fertility and children's activities treating the Poisson process generating the number of children as being endogenous in the multinomial logit process generating children's activities using a latent factor structure. Latent factors are incorporated into the equations for number of children and children's activities to allow for unobserved influences on fertility to affect children's activities, thus enabling us to make a distinction between selection on unobservables and selection on observables. We apply maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) techniques to estimate the parameters of our models. We find that the effect of fertility has a large downward bias in naive models. The marginal effect of fertility on child labor and schooling are twice as large when common unobserved heterogeneity in fertility and activity decisions are accounted for.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Understanding Children's Work (UCW Project) in its series UCW Working Paper with number 4.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ucw:worpap:4

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
    Other versions:
  2. Manski, C.F. & Sandefur, G.D. & Mclanahan, S. & Powers, D., 1990. "Alternative Estimates Of The Effect Of Family Stucture During Adolescence On Hight School Graduation," Working papers 90-31, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 1998. "Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Re-Evaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs," NBER Working Papers 6586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mealli, Fabrizia & Rubin, Donald B., 2003. "Assumptions allowing the estimation of direct causal effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 79-87, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael Lechner, 1999. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects of Multiple Treatments Under the Conditional Independence Assumption," IZA Discussion Papers 91, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ponczek, Vladimir & Portela, André, 2007. "The Causal Effect of Family Size on Child Labor and Education," Textos para discussão 162, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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