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The Winter Choke: Coal-Fired Heating, Air Pollution, and Mortality in China

Author

Listed:
  • Maoyong Fan

    (Department of Economics, Ball State University, Whitinger Business Building, Room 201, 2000 W. University Avenue, Muncie, IN 47306)

  • Guojun He

    (Division of Social Science, Division of Environment and Sustainability, and Department of Economics, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, HK, China)

  • Maigeng Zhou

    (National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China)

Abstract

China’s coal-fired winter heating systems generate large amounts of hazardous emissions that significantly deteriorate air quality. Exploiting regression discontinuity designs based on the exact starting dates of winter heating across different cities, we estimate the contemporaneous impact of winter heating on air pollution and health. We find that turning on the winter heating system increased the weekly Air Quality Index by 36% and caused 14% increase in mortality rate. This implies that a 10-point increase in the weekly Air Quality Index causes a 2.2% increase in overall mortality. People in poor and rural areas are particularly affected by the rapid deterioration in air quality; this implies that the health impact of air pollution may be mitigated by improved socio- economic conditions. Exploratory cost-benefit analysis suggests that replacing coal with natural gas for heating can improve social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Maoyong Fan & Guojun He & Maigeng Zhou, 2020. "The Winter Choke: Coal-Fired Heating, Air Pollution, and Mortality in China," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2020-71, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Mar 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:hku:wpaper:202071
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Winter Heating Policy; Air Pollution; Mortality; Coal to Gas; Regression Discontinuity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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