IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfi/wpaper/2020-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Technology Solve the Principal-Agent Problem? Evidence from China’s War on Air Pollution

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Greenstone

    (University of Chicago - Department of Economics; NBER)

  • Guojun He

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Ruixue Jia

    (University of California San Diego - School of Global Policy and Strategy; CIFAR; NBER)

  • Tong Liu

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology - Division of Social Science)

Abstract

We examine the introduction of automatic air pollution monitoring, which is a central feature of China’s “war on pollution.†Exploiting 654 regression discontinuity designs based on city-level variation in the day that monitoring was automated, we find that reported PM10 concentrations increased by 35% immediately post–automation and were sustained. City-level variation in underreporting is negatively correlated with income per capita and positively correlated with true pre-automation PM10 concentrations. Further, automation’s introduction increased online searches for face masks and air filters, suggesting that the biased and imperfect pre-automation information imposed welfare costs by leading to suboptimal purchases of protective goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Greenstone & Guojun He & Ruixue Jia & Tong Liu, 2020. "Can Technology Solve the Principal-Agent Problem? Evidence from China’s War on Air Pollution," Working Papers 2020-87, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-87
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_202087.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Greenstone & Rema Hanna, 2014. "Environmental Regulations, Air and Water Pollution, and Infant Mortality in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3038-3072, October.
    2. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from Air Purifier Markets in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(5), pages 1627-1672.
    3. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Rocío Titiunik, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 442-451, July.
    4. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    5. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2020. "Simple Local Polynomial Density Estimators," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 115(531), pages 1449-1455, July.
    6. Jean Tirole & Roland Bénabou, 2006. "Incentives and Prosocial Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1652-1678, December.
    7. Aghion, Philippe & Tirole, Jean, 1997. "Formal and Real Authority in Organizations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-29, February.
    8. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    10. Esther Duflo & Michael Greenstone & Nicholas Ryan, 2013. "Truth-telling by Third-party Auditors and the Response of Polluting Firms: Experimental Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1499-1545.
    11. Karthik Muralidharan & Paul Niehaus & Sandip Sukhtankar, 2016. "Building State Capacity: Evidence from Biometric Smartcards in India," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2895-2929, October.
    12. de Chaisemartin, Clement & D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier, 2014. "Fuzzy Changes-in Changes," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 184, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    13. Andrew Goodman-Bacon, 2018. "Difference-in-Differences with Variation in Treatment Timing," NBER Working Papers 25018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ghanem, Dalia & Zhang, Junjie, 2014. "‘Effortless Perfection:’ Do Chinese cities manipulate air pollution data?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 203-225.
    15. repec:ner:ucllon:http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/17678/ is not listed on IDEAS
    16. C de Chaisemartin & X D’HaultfŒuille, 2018. "Fuzzy Differences-in-Differences," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(2), pages 999-1028.
    17. Chen Yuyu & Jin Ginger Zhe & Kumar Naresh & Shi Guang, 2012. "Gaming in Air Pollution Data? Lessons from China," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 1-43, December.
    18. Meredith Fowlie & Edward Rubin & Reed Walker, 2019. "Bringing Satellite-Based Air Quality Estimates Down to Earth," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 283-288, May.
    19. Panle Jia Barwick & Shanjun Li & Liguo Lin & Eric Zou, 2019. "From Fog to Smog: the Value of Pollution Information," NBER Working Papers 26541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. He, Guojun & Fan, Maoyong & Zhou, Maigeng, 2016. "The effect of air pollution on mortality in China: Evidence from the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 18-39.
    21. Esther Duflo & Michael Greenstone & Rohini Pande & Nicholas Ryan, 2018. "The Value of Regulatory Discretion: Estimates From Environmental Inspections in India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 2123-2160, November.
    22. Jean-Jacques Laffont & Jean Tirole, 1993. "A Theory of Incentives in Procurement and Regulation," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121743, December.
    23. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    24. Jay P. Shimshack, 2014. "The Economics of Environmental Monitoring and Enforcement," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 339-360, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Browne, Oliver R. & Gazze, Ludovica & Greenstone, Michael & Rostapshova, Olga, 2022. "Man vs. Machine : Technological Promise and Political Limits of Automated Regulation Enforcement," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 646, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    2. Sébastien Marchand & Damien Cubizol & Elda Nasho Ah-Pine & Huanxiu Guo, 2023. "Policy change, mass media and air quality in China: new paths to face air pollution?," Working Papers hal-03448375, HAL.
    3. Hanming Fang & Chang Liu & Li-An Zhou, 2020. "Window Dressing in the Public Sector: A Case Study of China’s Compulsory Education Promotion Program," NBER Working Papers 27628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shihe Fu & V. Brian Viard, 2022. "A mayors perspective on tackling air pollution," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 16, pages 413-437, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Yingfei Mu & Edward A. Rubin & Eric Zou, 2021. "What’s Missing in Environmental (Self-)Monitoring: Evidence from Strategic Shutdowns of Pollution Monitors," NBER Working Papers 28735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Djoumessi, Berenger Tiague, 2022. "Air Pollution, Avoidance Behavior and Labor Supply: Evidence from the United States," SocArXiv czpf4, Center for Open Science.
    7. Shiyu Bo, 2021. "Environmental Regulations, Political Incentives and Local Economic Activities: Evidence from China," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 812-835, June.
    8. Yuan, Huaxi & Zou, Longhui & Feng, Yidai, 2023. "How to achieve emission reduction without hindering economic growth? The role of judicial quality," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Kong, Dongmin & Liang, Junwei & Liu, Chenhao, 2022. "Invisible enemy: The health impact of ozone," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    10. Li Song & Xiaoliang Zhou, 2021. "Does the Green Industry Policy Reduce Industrial Pollution Emissions?—Evidence from China’s National Eco-Industrial Park," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Huang, Linyuan & Xie, Rui & Yang, Guohao, 2022. "The impact of lockdown on air pollution: Evidence from an instrument," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Sébastien Marchand & Damien Cubizol & Elda Nasho Ah-Pine & Huanxiu Guo, 2023. "Policy change, mass media and air quality in China: new paths to face air pollution?," CERDI Working papers hal-03448375, HAL.
    13. Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Yao, Yao, 2023. "Extreme temperatures and out-of-pocket medical expenditure: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Shi, Xinzheng & Zhang, Ming-ang, 2023. "Waste import and air pollution: Evidence from China's waste import ban," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Saavedra, S, 2022. "The response of illegal mining to revealing its existence," Documentos de Trabajo 20078, Universidad del Rosario.
    16. Xinming Du, 2023. "Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence," CESifo Working Paper Series 10296, CESifo.
    17. Liu, Chenhao & Kong, Dongmin, 2021. "Does political incentive shape governments' disclosure of air pollution information?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Greenstone & Guojun He & Ruixue Jia & Tong Liu, 2022. "Can Technology Solve the Principal-Agent Problem? Evidence from China's War on Air Pollution," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 54-70, March.
    2. Fan, Maoyong & He, Guojun & Zhou, Maigeng, 2020. "The winter choke: Coal-Fired heating, air pollution, and mortality in China," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Xu, Jian & Zheng, Jiaxing, 2022. "Mass media, air quality, and management turnover," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Burgherr, David, 2022. "Behavioral Responses to a Pension Savings Mandate : Quasi-experimental Evidence from Swiss Tax Data," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 645, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Tong Liu & Guojun He & Alexis Lau, 2018. "Avoidance behavior against air pollution: evidence from online search indices for anti-PM2.5 masks and air filters in Chinese cities," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 20(2), pages 325-363, April.
    6. Yingfei Mu & Edward A. Rubin & Eric Zou, 2021. "What’s Missing in Environmental (Self-)Monitoring: Evidence from Strategic Shutdowns of Pollution Monitors," NBER Working Papers 28735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Olexiy Kyrychenko, 2021. "Environmental Regulations, Air Pollution, and Infant Mortality in India: A Reexamination," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp703, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    8. Xin Zhang & Xun Zhang & Yuehua Liu & Xintong Zhao & Xi Chen, 2023. "The morbidity costs of air pollution through the Lens of Health Spending in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1269-1292, July.
    9. Thomas Stoerk, 2017. "Compliance, Efficiency and Instrument Choice: Evidence from air pollution control in China," GRI Working Papers 273, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    10. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from Air Purifier Markets in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(5), pages 1627-1672.
    11. Kong, Dongmin & Liang, Junwei & Liu, Chenhao, 2022. "Invisible enemy: The health impact of ozone," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Rodrigo Carril & Andres Gonzalez-Lira & Michael S. Walker, 2022. "Competition under Incomplete Contracts and the Design of Procurement Policies," Working Papers 1327, Barcelona School of Economics.
    13. Chen, Siyu & Guo, Chongshan & Huang, Xinfei, 2018. "Air Pollution, Student Health, and School Absences: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 465-497.
    14. Blaise Melly & Rafael Lalive, 2020. "Estimation, Inference, and Interpretation in the Regression Discontinuity Design," Diskussionsschriften dp2016, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    15. Bonilla, Sade, 2020. "The dropout effects of career pathways: Evidence from California," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Kettlewell, Nathan & Siminski, Peter, 2020. "Optimal Model Selection in RDD and Related Settings Using Placebo Zones," IZA Discussion Papers 13639, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Yoichi Arai & Yu‐Chin Hsu & Toru Kitagawa & Ismael Mourifié & Yuanyuan Wan, 2022. "Testing identifying assumptions in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(1), pages 1-28, January.
    18. Yao, Yao & Li, Xue & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Lin, 2022. "Air pollution and political trust in local government: Evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Du, Xinming, 2023. "Competing with clean air: Pollution disclosure and college desirability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    20. David M. Brasington, 2022. "Local economic growth and local government investment in parks and recreation, or five cheese pizzas for $2.6 million," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 81-95, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technology; automation; air pollution; China; monitoring and surveillance; moral hazard; data quality;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Toni Shears (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfichus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.