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Equity Valuation in Mainland China and Hong Kong: The Chinese A-H Share Premium

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  • Zhijun Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Yue Ma

    (Lingnan University)

  • Yuhui Liu

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

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Abstract

This paper studies the links between fundamental value and market price of the companies listed in both mainland A-share and Hong Kong H-share markets. As the valuation model has been inadequately applied in the literature, this study theoretically clarifies that the dividends discount model (DDM) and it derivatives are suitable for firms, but not for general consumers and investors, to evaluate equity fundamental values. Thus, using DDM and its derivatives to determine the market price of equity, which has been done in many other studies, is problematic. This paper also empirically studies how accounting data determines fundamental values of equities using a pooled-data vector autoregressive method. It indicates that although fundamental value can be a benchmark for investors to price equity, prices of equity may deviate from fundamental values substantially for a long time due to differences in preference and the extent of risk aversion between A-shares and H-shares. Correlation between equity price and its fundamental value for H-shares is larger than the correlation for A-shares. This paper also explains why there has been a big price gaps between A-shares and H-shares with exactly the same yields rights. The estimates of fundamental value for each company help investors make rational investment decisions. It suggests that, in the long run, healthy development of Chinese securities markets will depend on the progress of privatisation and marketisation of the Chinese economy. Measures such as the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) and Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) programmes should be adopted to improve the efficiency of financial resources utilisation in mainland China, despite the short-run pressure that may put on A-share markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 142005.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:142005

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Keywords: A-H share premium; China; Hong Kong;

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References

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  1. Beaver, William H., 1999. "Comments on 'An empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model'," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 35-42, January.
  2. Wang, Steven Shuye & Jiang, Li, 2004. "Location of trade, ownership restrictions, and market illiquidity: Examining Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1273-1297, June.
  3. G. M. Chen & Bong-Soo Lee & Oliver Rui, 2001. "Foreign Ownership Restrictions And Market Segmentation In China'S Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 133-155, 03.
  4. Chen, G M & Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver, 2001. "Foreign Ownership Restrictions and Market Segmentation in China's Stock Markets," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 133-55, Spring.
  5. Charles M. C. Lee & James Myers & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 1999. "What is the Intrinsic Value of the Dow?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1693-1741, October.
  6. John Fernald & John H. Rogers, 2002. "Puzzles In The Chinese Stock Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 416-432, August.
  7. Angelos Kanas & Yue Ma, 2004. "Intrinsic bubbles revisited: evidence from nonlinear cointegration and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 237-250.
  8. Chakravarty, Sugato & Sarkar, Asani & Wu, Lifan, 1998. "Information asymmetry, market segmentation and the pricing of cross-listed shares: theory and evidence from Chinese A and B shares," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 325-356, December.
  9. Yue Ma & Shu Kam Lee & Hing Lin Chan, 2003. "Estimating Firm Behavior under Rationing: a Panel Data Study of the Chinese Manufacturing Industry," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 221-244.
  10. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Frankel, Richard & Lee, Charles M. C., 1998. "Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 283-319, June.
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