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Election Fraud and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines

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  • Benjamin Crost

    ()
    (University of Colorado Denver)

  • Joseph H. Felter

    ()
    (Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University)

  • Hani Mansour

    ()
    (University of Colorado Denver)

  • Daniel I. Rees

    ()
    (University of Colorado Denver)

Abstract

Previous studies have documented a positive association between election fraud and the intensity of civil conflict. It is not clear, however, whether this association is causal or due to unobserved institutional and cultural factors. This paper examines the relationship between election fraud and post-election violence in the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections. Using the density test developed by McCrary (2008), we find evidence that incumbents were able to win tightly contested elections through fraud. In addition, we show that narrow incumbent victories were associated with an increase in post-election casualties, which is consistent with the hypothesis that election fraud causes conflict. We conduct several robustness tests and find no evidence that incumbent victories increased violence for reasons unrelated to fraud.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Households in Conflict Network in its series HiCN Working Papers with number 158.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:158

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  1. Akresh, Richard & Lucchetti, Leonardo & Thirumurthy, Harsha, 2011. "Wars and Child Health: Evidence from the Eritrean-Ethiopian Conflict," IZA Discussion Papers 5558, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Andrew Beath & Fotini Christia & Ruben Enikolopov, 2011. "Winning Hearts and Minds through Development Aid: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan," Working Papers, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) w0166, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  3. Gianmarco León, 2012. "Civil conflict and human capital accumulation: The long-term effects of political violence in Perú," Economics Working Papers, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 1333, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  4. Mansour, Hani & Rees, Daniel I., 2012. "Armed conflict and birth weight: Evidence from the al-Aqsa Intifada," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 190-199.
  5. Radha Iyengar & Jonathan Monten & Matthew Hanson, 2011. "Building Peace: The Impact of Aid on the Labor Market for Insurgents," NBER Working Papers 17297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Eli Berman & Michael Callen & Joseph H. Felter & Jacob N. Shapiro, 2011. "Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), Peace Science Society (International), vol. 55(4), pages 496-528, August.
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