Election Fraud and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines
AbstractPrevious studies have documented a positive association between election fraud and the intensity of civil conflict. It is not clear, however, whether this association is causal or due to unobserved institutional and cultural factors. This paper examines the relationship between election fraud and post-election violence in the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections. Using the density test developed by McCrary (2008), we find evidence that incumbents were able to win tightly contested elections through fraud. In addition, we show that narrow incumbent victories were associated with an increase in post-election casualties, which is consistent with the hypothesis that election fraud causes conflict. We conduct several robustness tests and find no evidence that incumbent victories increased violence for reasons unrelated to fraud.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Households in Conflict Network in its series HiCN Working Papers with number 158.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
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Web page: http://www.hicn.org
Other versions of this item:
- Crost, Benjamin & Felter, Joseph & Mansour, Hani & Rees, Daniel I., 2013. "Election Fraud and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," IZA Discussion Papers 7469, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- D73 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2013-12-06 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-DEV-2013-12-06 (Development)
- NEP-POL-2013-12-06 (Positive Political Economics)
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