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Effects of Increased Demand for Biofuels: A Dynamic Model of the Swedish Forest Sector

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  • Ankarhem, Mattias

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

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    Abstract

    In this paper, we estimate the dynamic effects on the forest sector of an increased demand for biofuels. This is done by developing a partial adjustment model of the forest sector that enables short, intermediate, and long run price elasticities to be estimated. It is relevant to study the effects of increased demand for biofuels as the Swedish government has committed to an energy policy that is likely to further increase the use of renewable resources in the Swedish energy system. Four subsectors are included in the model: the forest owners, who supply sawtimber, pulpwood and forest fuels; the sawmills which demand sawtimber; the pulp and paper industry which demands pulpwood; and the energy industry which demands forest fuels. The results show that the short run elasticities are fairly consistent with earlier studies and that sluggish adjustment in the capital stock is important in determining the short and intermediate run responses. Simulation shows that an increase in the demand for forest fuels has a positive effect on the equilibrium price of all the three types of wood, and a negative effect on the equilibrium quantities of sawtimber and pulpwood.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 658.

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    Length: 22 pages
    Date of creation: 28 Apr 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0658

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    Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
    Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
    Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
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    Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
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    Keywords: Forest economics; Price elasticities; Long run; Energy sector;

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    1. Thijssen, Geert, 1994. "Supply Response and Dynamic Factor Demand of Dutch Dairy Farms," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 241-58.
    2. Sjöström, Magnus, 2004. "Biofuels and Market Power - The Case of Swedish District Heating Plants," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 634, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    3. Brannlund, Runar & Kristrom, Bengt, 2001. "Too hot to handle?: Benefits and costs of stimulating the use of biofuels in the Swedish heating sector," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 343-358, October.
    4. Runar Brannlund & Per-Olov Marklund & Magnus Sjostrom, 2004. "Evaluating market efficiency without price data: the Swedish market for wood fuel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 31-39.
    5. Hamermesh, Daniel S & Pfann, Gerard Antonie, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," CEPR Discussion Papers 1371, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lundgren, Tommy & Sjöström, Magnus, 1998. "A Dynamic Factor Demand Model for the Swedish Pulp Industry, 1998," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 479, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
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