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Forecasting the fast and frugal way: A study of performance and information-processing strategies of experts and non-experts when predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer

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Author Info

  • Andersson, Patric

    ()
    (Center for economic psychology)

  • Ekman, Mattias

    ()
    (Stockholm Health Economics AB)

  • Edman, Jan

    ()
    (Penn State University)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper investigates forecasting performance and judgmental processes of experts and non-experts in soccer. Two circumstances motivated the paper: (i) little is known about how accurately experts predict sports events, and (ii) recent research on human judgment suggests that ignorance-based decision-strategies may be reliable. About 250 participants with different levels of knowledge of soccer took part in a survey and predicted the outcome of the first round of World Cup 2002. It was found that the participating experts (i.e., sport journalists, soccer fans, and soccer coaches) were not more accurate than the non-experts. Experts overestimated their performance and were overconfident. While the experts claimed to have relied on analytical approaches and much information, participants with limited knowledge stated that their forecasts were based upon recognition and few pieces of information. The paper concludes that a recognition-based strategy seems to be appropriate when forecasting worldwide soccer events.

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    File URL: http://swoba.hhs.se/hastba/papers/hastba2003_009.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Stockholm School of Economics in its series Working Paper Series in Business Administration with number 2003:9.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: 17 May 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhb:hastba:2003_009

    Note: Submitted for publication
    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, SE 113 83 Stockholm, Sweden
    Phone: +46-(0)8-736 90 00
    Fax: +46-(0)8-31 01 57
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    Web page: http://www.hhs.se/
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    Related research

    Keywords: Expert predictions; Information use; Judgmental forecasting; Overconfidence; Recognition heuristic; Sports forecasting;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Are sports seedings good predictors?: an evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-91, February.
    2. Sundali, James A. & Atkins, Allen B., 1994. "Expertise in Investment Analysis: Fact or Fiction," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 223-241, August.
    3. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2002. "Online Investors: Do the Slow Die First?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 455-488, March.
    4. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.
    5. Gigerenzer, Gerd & Todd, Peter M. & ABC Research Group,, 2000. "Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195143812.
    6. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Rules, not judgment
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2006-05-15 12:21:14
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    Cited by:
    1. Andersson, Patric & Edman, Jan & Ekman, Mattias, 2005. "Predicting the World Cup 2002 in soccer: Performance and confidence of experts and non-experts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 565-576.

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